Can Nextdoor Become the Next 100-Bagger? Why One Prominent Investor Sees Massive Upside Potential

A Track Record Worth Paying Attention To

Investment strategist Eric Jackson has built a reputation for spotting transformational opportunities. His public endorsement of Carvana (NYSE: CVNA) proved prescient, as the stock delivered roughly a 100-fold return. More recently, his bullish call on Opendoor (NASDAQ: OPEN) successfully captured a 10-fold appreciation. Now, Jackson is turning his spotlight toward a different sector entirely: neighborhood-based commerce and AI automation.

The Investment Thesis: Nextdoor as a Neighborhood Operating System

Jackson recently outlined an ambitious case for Nextdoor (NYSE: NXDR), describing the platform as “the most mispriced agentic-AI marketplace of the 2020s.” His analysis rests on several foundational pillars.

The platform boasts 100 million verified users organized by proximity—real households within tight-knit neighborhood networks. Current engagement sits modest at roughly 20% weekly active users, but Jackson sees this as the opportunity rather than the weakness. He envisions Nextdoor evolving into the primary operating system for neighborhood commerce and services, powered by autonomous AI capabilities.

Consider the practical applications. Imagine typing “I need a plumber in Alexandria, VA who can come today” into a neighborhood marketplace. AI systems could instantly match homeowners with vetted local service providers—eliminating search friction and driving massive engagement. This scenario isn’t hypothetical; it represents the near-term future Jackson believes Nextdoor is positioned to capture. The platform naturally facilitates lead generation for local trades and service professionals while monetizing through advertising and commission-based models.

Leadership and Operational Improvements

Under CEO Nirav Tolia, who reclaimed leadership in 2024, Nextdoor has demonstrated tangible progress. Within 18 months, the company delivered a comprehensive platform redesign, substantially reduced spam and duplicate alerts, achieved positive EBITDA, and maintained fortress-like balance sheet strength with zero debt.

The Valuation Argument

Jackson applies a strategic lens to current pricing. He argues the stock should trade around $11 per share today—more than 5 times the current level—simply by applying more appropriate price-to-sales multiples to a debt-free, cash-generative business.

Looking further out, Jackson projects Nextdoor could generate $5.7 billion in high-margin revenue from advertising and lead generation by 2030. Benchmarking against comparable agentic commerce platforms, he calculates potential enterprise value of $142.5 billion, translating to approximately $374 per share. That represents roughly 150 times the current valuation—a potential 150-bagger.

Significant Risks Warrant Healthy Skepticism

While Jackson’s framework contains compelling logic, investors should maintain realistic expectations. Spotting tomorrow’s 100-fold winners remains extraordinarily difficult. Jackson’s public track record highlights his successes while often receiving less coverage of underperforming positions—a natural human bias in investing discussion.

More fundamentally, tremendous execution must occur for this thesis to materialize. Nextdoor must capture meaningful market share in neighborhood-based services and lead generation. AI monetization capabilities must develop faster than competitors. User engagement must increase substantially from current levels. Competition from larger platforms remains a persistent threat.

Before deploying capital into Nextdoor or any small-cap opportunity, conduct independent research into current business fundamentals, competitive positioning, and management execution. The potential upside merits investigation, but so does the substantial downside risk inherent in emerging technology platforms.