Could Apple Dethrone Nvidia in 2026? Why One Analyst Thinks the iPhone Maker's "Fool's Errand" Prediction Might Actually Pan Out

The AI Gap That Nobody’s Talking About

When artificial intelligence swept through Wall Street, one name dominated the conversation: Nvidia. With its graphics processing units becoming the backbone of the AI revolution, the chipmaker surged 975% in three years. Meanwhile, Apple—a member of the elite “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks—limped along with just a 95% climb, barely outpacing the S&P 500’s 73% gain.

The narrative seemed settled: Nvidia won the AI race, Apple lost. But Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives is challenging this script. He recently raised his Apple price target to $350 (up from $320), suggesting the stock could climb 26% in the near term—and potentially become the world’s most valuable company by 2026.

The bold call hinges on two oft-overlooked factors that Ives believes the market has massively underpriced.

The iPhone Installed Base Nobody’s Counting On

Let’s talk about the elephant in the room: Apple’s installed base of 2.4 billion iOS devices, of which 1.5 billion are iPhones. This isn’t just a number—it’s a moat that few other companies can match.

Recent channel checks from Ives’ team suggest iPhone 17 sales are tracking exceptionally well heading into the holiday season, historically Apple’s strongest quarter. This captive audience, when combined with the company’s imminent AI overhaul, could unlock massive profit potential. Ives estimates the stock could gain between $75 and $100 per share from this dynamic alone.

What makes this intriguing is how overlooked it remains. Investors obsessed with Nvidia’s GPU dominance have largely ignored that Apple controls a sprawling ecosystem of devices primed for next-generation experiences.

The AI Strategy Reshuffle That Changes Everything

For years, Apple has been criticized for moving too slowly on AI compared to peers. But that’s changing—and the change is institutional, not cosmetic.

The company recently brought aboard Amar Subramanya, a 16-year Google veteran who spearheaded AI efforts at both Google DeepMind (as head of engineering for Gemini) and Microsoft. Subramanya now leads Apple’s foundation models, machine learning research, and AI safety evaluation. This isn’t a lateral hire; it signals Apple is serious about integrating AI across its product ecosystem.

The most visible catalyst? Siri. Reports suggest Apple is on the verge of a partnership with Google to fundamentally reimagine its voice assistant—a long-overdue upgrade that could breathe new life into the entire iPhone experience. If this deal closes, it could spark a wave of renewed demand for Apple devices and services.

The Market Cap Showdown: A Prediction That Breaks Every Rule

Here’s where it gets interesting: predicting future stock prices is, frankly, a fool’s errand. Anyone who claims certainty about market direction is either delusional or selling something.

But the math is worth examining. Ives maintains a $210 price target on Nvidia, which would push its market cap to $5.1 trillion. Meanwhile, if Apple hits Ives’ $350 target in 2026, its market cap would reach $5.17 trillion—just barely nudging ahead of Nvidia.

The valuation argument sweetens the case: Apple trades at 33 times forward earnings, while Nvidia commands 39 times. On a purely relative basis, Apple offers better value for investors willing to bet on its AI resurgence.

The Verdict

Ives maintains an “outperform” rating on both stocks, but his capital allocation priority seems clear. Apple’s track record of defying skeptics, combined with a meaningful installed base, a leadership reshuffle that telegraphs serious AI ambitions, and strong iPhone momentum heading into 2026, presents a compelling risk-reward opportunity.

Whether Apple actually becomes the world’s most valuable company by 2026 remains uncertain—that’s the nature of markets. But writing off the possibility seems equally foolish.