On December 26th, the Ethereum market experienced a significant shock. The accumulated positions in derivatives exchanges erupted in a concentrated manner, and the entire market's options expiration volume hit a record high — $28.5 billion in contracts settled simultaneously, with Ethereum accounting for $6 billion.

Does this number seem small? Think about it from another perspective — what does it mean? Large concentrated positions typically stir up price movements during settlement. Especially when a large number of put options are stacked between $2,200 and $2,900, as long as the settlement price is between $2,700 and $2,900, the shorts profit. Market volatility suddenly surged, and in the short term, no one can predict the next move.

What’s even more concerning is the attitude of institutional funds. The US spot Ethereum ETF has been outflows for two consecutive months, and the 30-day net inflow moving average has completely turned negative. In other words, major institutions are now less inclined to buy. This marginal shift directly impacts price support — structural buying power is weakening, and the market's reaction to capital flows is becoming increasingly sensitive.

Adding to this, we are currently in the holiday period from Christmas to New Year, with European and American traders generally on break, leading to inherently weak liquidity. Large transactions are more likely to cause impact costs, and small funds are easily affected. All these factors combined suggest that the recent market movements warrant close attention.