Why Fertilizer Stocks Like NTR, YARIY, and IPI Deserve Your Attention in 2026

The fertilizer sector experienced a striking turnaround in 2025, rebounding from a brutal 2024 when oversupply and collapsing prices ravaged producer margins. As we head into 2026, three companies—Nutrien Ltd. (NTR), Yara International ASA (YARIY), and Intrepid Potash, Inc. (IPI)—stand out as potential plays in a recovering industry landscape, though investors need to navigate persistent headwinds carefully.

The Fertilizer Sector’s Comeback Story: 2025 Reset

Last year painted a grim picture for fertilizer makers. Massive oversupply flooded markets as producers ramped up capacity while geopolitical disruptions resolved, allowing operations to run at full throttle. Coupled with anemic global demand, prices for phosphate, potash, and nitrogen crashed hard. The S&P 500 left fertilizer stocks in the dust as profitability evaporated.

Fast-forward to 2025: the industry found solid ground. Tighter supplies, bolstered by China’s export restrictions and U.S. tariffs, combined with steady agricultural demand to lift prices meaningfully. Phosphate led the charge, gaining the most traction. For companies in the space, higher prices translated directly to fatter revenue and margin expansion.

But here’s the catch—the recovery isn’t bulletproof. Raw material costs remain stubbornly elevated. Sulfur and ammonia, essential for phosphate production, continue climbing due to Russia-Ukraine supply disruptions and ongoing plant maintenance bottlenecks. Natural gas prices, critical for nitrogen fertilizer production, add another layer of cost pressure. These input headwinds are squeezing margins and will likely persist into 2026.

Farmer Economics Create a Mixed Demand Picture

The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects net farm income will jump 40.7% year-over-year to $179.8 billion in 2025, thanks largely to government support payments. Yet beneath that headline lurks trouble: crop cash receipts are expected to fall 2.5% as prices for corn, soybean, and wheat remain depressed from oversupply, significantly below the 2022 peaks.

This squeeze on farmer economics poses a real risk. When growers face higher fertilizer costs alongside weaker crop prices, many turn to a painful choice: apply less fertilizer or shift to less nutrient-intensive crops. While strong planted acreage expectations and solid agricultural fundamentals globally suggest underlying demand resilience, near-term volume could soften if cost pressures persist.

Three Stocks Positioned for 2026 Growth

Nutrien (NTR): Operational Excellence Meets Market Tailwinds

The Canadian company is riding strong demand for crop nutrients, particularly across North America. NTR’s playbook centers on relentless cost discipline—the company is aggressively lowering production costs in its potash division while driving operational efficiency gains. Strategic acquisitions and deepening its Brazil footprint also support expansion. Digital platform adoption among its customer base provides a competitive moat.

Analysts project 32.6% earnings growth for 2025, with consensus estimates revised 1.5% upward in recent weeks. NTR carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), reflecting cautious optimism tempered by industry headwinds.

Yara International (YARIY): Ammonia Expertise in a Tight Market

Norway’s Yara boasts industry-leading capabilities in ammonia development and distribution—a critical advantage as nitrogen demand remains solid. The company is executing a two-pronged strategy: aggressive cost-cutting and balance sheet strengthening to improve profitability and cash generation. Management is also returning capital to shareholders via strong cash flows.

YARIY’s numbers are eye-catching: expected earnings growth of 150.6% for 2025, with an average trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 58.4%. Consensus estimates have ticked up 0.9% in the past 60 days. Like NTR, YARIY holds a Zacks Rank #3.

Intrepid Potash (IPI): The Muriate of Potash Play

Colorado-based Intrepid is the sole U.S. producer of muriate of potash and also manufactures Trio, a specialty fertilizer gaining traction from recovering industrial demand. The company benefits from healthy farmer economics and improving crop economics. Volume expansion is on deck as production capacity projects come online.

IPI’s projected earnings growth for 2025 is stunning at 506.7%, with consensus estimates revised 3.4% upward recently. The company also holds a Zacks Rank #3.

The Path Forward: Balanced Opportunity

The fertilizer industry entered 2026 with genuine momentum after 2025’s recovery, supported by better price dynamics and solid agricultural fundamentals. The three stocks highlighted—Nutrien, Yara International, and Intrepid Potash—each offer distinct operational advantages and positive earnings trajectory.

However, success in this sector still hinges on managing input costs and navigating farmer demand dynamics. While longer-term agricultural prospects remain sound, near-term volatility is baked in. Investors hunting for fertilizer exposure should size positions accordingly and view these holdings through a multi-year lens, allowing fundamentals to play out despite near-term turbulence.