Mosaic Stock Shows Mixed Signals: Analysts Project Strong Gains Despite Neutral Stance

On December 5, 2025, JP Morgan kept its coverage of Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) at Neutral, yet the broader analyst community paints a more optimistic picture. According to the latest consensus data from November 17, 2025, the one-year average price target sits at $35.94 per share, suggesting significant upside from the current trading level of $24.10—representing a potential 49.12% gain for investors.

Analyst Forecasts: The Numbers Behind MOS

The price target range reveals analyst divergence, spanning from a conservative $26.26 to a bullish $45.15. Beyond stock valuation, the research community projects Mosaic will generate $13,301 million in annual revenue, marking an 11.82% year-over-year increase. Non-GAAP EPS is forecasted at 4.78, underscoring the company’s earnings potential.

Institutional Ownership: Who’s Buying and Selling?

The fund landscape around Mosaic remains active, with 1,368 funds and institutions holding positions. While this represents a slight decline of 31 owners (2.22%) quarter-over-quarter, the average portfolio allocation to MOS stands at 0.22%—up 6.00% from the prior period. However, total institutional shareholding dipped by 0.41%, now totaling 336,408 thousand shares. The put/call ratio of 1.00 reflects a balanced market view tilting slightly bullish.

Major Fund Movements: Tracking Smart Money

Vanguard’s Index Strategies Show Mixed Conviction: VTSMX increased its stake from 10,031K to 10,233K shares (3.22% ownership), boosting portfolio weight by 22.93%. Similarly, VFINX expanded from 8,830K to 8,998K shares (2.83% ownership), raising allocation by 22.27%—signaling confidence from passive index trackers.

Active Managers Navigate Differently: Invesco holds 9,186K shares (2.89% ownership), up 3.61% from prior holdings of 8,855K shares, but notably trimmed its MOS allocation by 89.34%. AQR Capital Management made the quarter’s most dramatic move, surging from 1,153K to 8,447K shares (2.66% ownership)—an 86.35% jump—while increasing portfolio weight by 50.96%.

Geode Capital’s Contrarian Stance: Despite raising its position from 8,217K to 8,416K shares (2.65% ownership) with a 2.36% increase, Geode cut its portfolio allocation by 52.92%, suggesting a deliberate rebalancing strategy.

The Takeaway

Mosaic presents an intriguing case of divergent signals. While JP Morgan maintains caution, analyst consensus targets near-50% upside, and major fund families are selectively adjusting positions. The institutional positioning—particularly AQR’s aggressive accumulation and index fund increases—may hint at longer-term confidence despite near-term uncertainty.