CPI and US Jobs Data for December: The Most Important Article Before Moving into January

The New Year is approaching very quickly, Christmas has already passed, but to be honest, the Fed hasn’t given the market any gifts at all. Many people once hoped that “Powell Santa” would bring some surprises — cutting interest rates, easing messages — but ultimately, nothing happened. No rate cuts, no major volatility. And now, the market’s common question is: 👉 Will the real gift arrive at the beginning of the new year? Let’s look directly at the US economic data for December to understand what the Fed is thinking. 📉 December Inflation: Down, But Very “Gentle” December inflation is expected to be around ~2.7% YoY and ~0.2% MoM. This indicates: Inflation is cooling downBut cooling down gradually, in a controlled mannerNot collapsing quicklyNor surging back From the Fed’s perspective, this is positive progress, but not strong enough to force them to act hastily. The Fed wants to see sustained stability, not just a few good months. 👷 Labor Market: Cooling Down, But Not Broken Regarding employment: December hiring is forecasted to slow down, but still positive growthUnemployment rate around ~4.5% This suggests: The labor market is gradually looseningBut no signs of crisisNo pressure forcing the Fed to “rescue” immediately In other words: everything is cooling down in an orderly manner. And that’s why the Fed feels completely comfortable with… waiting. ₿ What Does This Mean for Bitcoin in January? Actually, the current context is not at all bad for BTC. Inflation decreasing → expectations of policy easing still remainLabor softening → tightening pressures are not increasingLiquidity, while not booming, still holds hope This scenario supports BTC holding steady or slightly increasing in January. ⚠️ However, don’t expect a “moonshot” just because it’s the new year. BTC may run ahead based on expectations, but the real momentum will only come if January data confirms this trend continues. 🏦 Why Is There Only a 40–50% Chance of the Fed Cutting Rates in February? With: December CPI around ~2.7%Weakening but stable employment 👉 The Fed has no urgent reason to cut rates in February. That’s why: The probability of rate cuts in February is currently only ~40–50%December data only indicates the directionJanuary’s CPI and employment data will be the decisive factors for timing. Possible scenarios: If January data is significantly weaker → there’s still a chance in FebruaryIf the data remains stable → rate cut postponed to March or May 🎁 Conclusion: No Christmas Gift, But Hope for the New Year The Fed is waiting. The market is waiting. And January will be the decisive month. 🎅 Christmas gifts didn’t arrive, but the New Year gift could still appear — just not certain, and not as early as many hoped. Stay calm, monitor the data, and don’t let emotions lead the way. The market doesn’t give free gifts — it only rewards those who are patient and understand the game.