Why 2026 will be crucial for the approval of cryptocurrency regulation in the US

Source: PortaldoBitcoin Original Title: Why 2026 Will Be Crucial for the Approval of Cryptocurrency Regulation in the US Original Link: The year of 2026 promises to be decisive for the future of cryptocurrency regulation in the United States, with Congress facing the challenge of passing comprehensive legislation for the sector before midterm elections begin to dominate the political agenda.

According to industry experts and sources connected to crypto industry advocacy, there is an estimated 50% to 60% chance that a comprehensive bill will become law next year, reflecting a mix of cautious optimism and structural uncertainties.

The optimism is mainly anchored in ongoing discussions between Democrats and Republicans, something that has not been common in crypto debates in recent years. Kevin Wysocki, Head of Public Policy at Anchorage Digital, said he assigns about a 50% probability of legislation passing in 2026, highlighting the growing dialogue between the parties as a positive point.

At the same time, he emphasizes that the bill is complex because it involves banking rules, securities, and commodities regulations simultaneously, making negotiations more difficult.

Regulatory Framework Under Debate

In the Senate, efforts are focused on a market structure bill that seeks to regulate the cryptocurrency sector comprehensively. The Senate Banking Committee is working on a draft that proposes dividing jurisdiction between the SEC and the CFTC, as well as creating the concept of “accessory assets” to clarify which cryptocurrencies should not be treated as securities.

In parallel, the Senate Agriculture Committee, responsible for overseeing the CFTC, introduced last month a proposal that expands the agency’s powers. If advanced, both texts will still need to be reconciled before a vote in the full Senate.

There was an expectation that the Banking Committee would hold a hearing and move forward with the bill later this year, but this did not happen. A committee spokesperson stated that negotiations with Democrats have progressed and that the current plan is to mark up and vote on the bill in early 2026. According to him, significant progress has been made toward bipartisan legislation on the digital asset market structure.

Stablecoins and DeFi

Despite this, sensitive points remain that hinder consensus. One of the main disputes involves the regulation of stablecoins that offer yields.

Banking sector associations argue that the GENIUS law, passed mid-year, left important loopholes by not explicitly banning interest payments, which could turn stablecoins into savings and credit instruments, distorting competition with traditional banks. Industry representatives, however, defend that the ability to offer yields is part of legitimate competition within the financial system.

Another tension point concerns decentralized finance (DeFi) and the application of anti-money laundering rules, as well as the question of which regulator should oversee certain tokens. Cody Carbone, CEO of Digital Chamber, expressed concern that the SEC might have the final say on whether an asset is a security or a commodity.

Negotiations also face delicate issues related to potential conflicts of interest involving public figures in the crypto sector, including ventures linked to DeFi projects and stablecoins, as well as participation in mining companies.

Senator Cynthia Lummis stated in December that she tried, along with Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego, to include ethics provisions in the bill, but the proposal was returned by the White House.

Another factor weighing on negotiations is the weakening of the CFTC. Over the past year, four commissioners have left or announced their departure, leaving only one Republican commissioner and the acting chair. For Carbone, this makes it risky to grant even more regulatory power to an agency that should have five members, an argument used by Democrats in discussions.

Difficult Timeline

The political calendar is seen as one of the biggest obstacles. After potential approval in the Senate Banking Committee, the bill will still need to be unified with the Agriculture Committee’s version, voted on in the full Senate, and then reconciled with the House’s bill, known as Clarity, passed mid-year.

According to Carbone, if there are no concrete advances by January, the outlook becomes concerning. Wysocki believes that lawmakers essentially have the first half of the year to act before the midterm election campaign gains momentum, leaving only a small window after the election.

There is also a risk of new budget disputes. Congress recently approved temporary government funding after a 43-day shutdown ended in November, but this agreement expires on 01/30/2026. If no new consensus is reached, a shutdown could halt legislative work again, including crypto debates.

Nevertheless, regulation advocates believe some progress is inevitable. Rebecca Liao, CEO of Saga and former political campaign participant in 2020, said there are Democrats strongly committed to passing legislation for the sector, although time is short and the political environment volatile. She believes that if legislation does not advance in 2026, the push for regulatory clarity will continue, especially as major financial institutions deepen their involvement in digital assets.