Institutions flocking in, does Roblox still have a 50% upside?

On December 9th, Freedom Capital Markets issued its first coverage report on Roblox(NYSE:RBLX), rating it as Hold. More notably, analysts are full of imagination about the future of this stock—an average target price set at $145.47/share, representing nearly 49% upside from the current closing price of $97.64.

The price forecast ranges from a conservative $61.74 to an optimistic $189.00, reflecting differing market views on Roblox’s development path. But in any case, the average expectation points upward.

Large Funds Are Quietly Moving

The actions of institutional investors often signal market direction. Data shows that currently, 1,650 funds or institutions hold Roblox shares, an increase of 122 from the previous quarter, up 7.98% quarter-over-quarter. This number alone indicates a growing influx of “smart money.”

Even more noteworthy is that these institutions are increasing their investment weight in Roblox. The average allocation ratio of all holding funds to RBLX is 0.60%, a rise of 6.95% quarter-over-quarter. The total institutional shareholding has increased by 0.85% over the past three months to 605.8 million shares. This is not a minor increase but a systematic elevation of their emphasis on this company.

Who Is Increasing Holdings, Who Is Cutting?

A closer look at the specific actions of various institutions reveals more details:

Capital International Investors holds 29.769 million shares, accounting for 4.55%. Although their holdings decreased slightly by 2.16% from the previous quarter (from 30.413 million shares), this institution actually increased its investment weight in Roblox by 20.82%—indicating tactical adjustments, either to balance their portfolio or based on deeper insights.

Baillie Gifford’s moves are even more apparent. Their holdings decreased from 26.378 million shares to 23.297 million shares, a drop of 13.23%, but during the same period, they increased their portfolio weight by 15.34%. This contrast suggests that even with reductions, the institution remains optimistic about the stock’s potential.

The most aggressive is JPMorgan Chase. Their RBLX holdings surged from 4.201 million shares to 19.922 million shares, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 78.92%, with the portfolio allocation soaring by 472.16%. This is almost a direct message—JPMorgan’s confidence in Roblox is rapidly rising.

Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund and IEQ Capital show more stable performance, with the former slightly increasing holdings by 3.50%, and the latter reducing holdings by 7.49% as part of tactical adjustments.

Market Sentiment: Which Way Is It Heading?

The Put/Call ratio (put options to call options) is 0.87. What does this number imply? Simply put, when this ratio is below 1, it indicates a bullish market sentiment. Roblox’s 0.87 precisely reflects investors’ bullish outlook.

Fundamentally, the company’s expected annual revenue is $3,971 million, a decline of 11.04% year-over-year, which may be due to industry cyclicality. The non-GAAP EPS forecast is -1.67, which warrants attention but does not dampen institutional enthusiasm.

Why Is Roblox Attracting So Much Attention?

As one of the world’s largest user-generated content platforms, Roblox represents a new internet ecosystem—symbolizing creative freedom, user empowerment, and the digital economy. Its underlying concept resonates with the idea of “symbols that represent freedom”: users can freely create, express, and trade on this platform.

The influx of institutional funds is a recognition of this long-term value. From Freedom Capital Markets’ Hold rating to analysts’ nearly 50% upside target, the market seems to be waiting for more catalysts to unlock this potential.

The current question is not whether Roblox will rise, but when and how it will rise. The rhythm of big capital’s deployment already provides some answers.