Gold has surged to $4,500 per ounce in one breath. When this number appears before our eyes, the question arises: is it the peak, or just a mid-term休息 in the bull market?

Recently, an in-depth analysis provided an interesting answer. In short, there are indeed signs of overheating in the short term. But this is not the end of the story; rather, it’s the prelude to Act II. The key is to keep an eye on the Federal Reserve’s actions.

Why? Because the future market trend is primarily determined by two time windows:

**The first potential turning point in early 2026**. If inflation rebounds, the Federal Reserve may slow down its rate cuts, which could put pressure on gold. But this would be just fluctuations, not a reversal.

**The real turning point after May**. With a new Federal Reserve chair taking office, if inflation data truly falls back to target levels, rate cuts could accelerate. By then, the second wave of gold’s upward movement will begin, possibly even more sharply.

From another perspective, don’t obsess over how much more gold can rise. Instead of fixating on price targets, learn to read the Fed’s "mood." The moment policy shifts is the real trading signal.

By the way, silver’s situation is even more extreme. Its smaller market and weaker liquidity lead to more intense volatility—soaring sky-high when rising, and falling hard when dropping. If you want to participate in this sector, your psychological resilience must keep pace.

Gold’s long-term story is still ongoing, but turbulence is inevitable along the way. Are you ready?