12.17 Technical Scan: Risk of Key Support Breakdown for the US Dollar Index, Commodities Facing Adjustment Pressure

Market Background: Weak Employment Data Difficult to Move the Forex Market

Signs of continued weakness in the US labor market have emerged. In October, non-farm payrolls decreased by 105,000 month-on-month; although in November there was a monthly increase of 64,000, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, hitting a four-year high. This mixed signal did not trigger heightened market expectations for an early Fed rate cut; instead, it pushed the rate cut threshold higher, providing strong support for the US dollar index around the 98.0 level, which subsequently rebounded to the 98.60 area. Currently, major trading instruments are in a phase of cautious observation.

US Dollar Index: Key Levels Stuck in Stalemate, Direction Pending

On Tuesday (December 16), the US dollar index briefly dipped to a low of 97.8 during the session, then showed clear signs of stabilization. It ultimately rebounded to 98.2, even touching around 98.5. Technical analysis indicates that the dollar index found support at the Gann 2/1 line level, with short-term bulls and bears engaging in a tug-of-war, leading to a phase of consolidation.

If the dollar index cannot hold above 98.0 and effectively break below, focus will shift to 95.2, opening room for further decline. Conversely, to regain upward momentum, the first key resistance is at 99.3.

Key Price Levels for Reference

• Support: 98.0, 96.5, 95.2
• Resistance: 98.5, 99.3, 100.0

Gold: Upward Movement Stalled, Correction Needed

Gold rose by 0.36% on Wednesday (December 17), with a high of $4342. Notably, gold has repeatedly failed to break above $4350 recently, indicating significant resistance overhead. Although the overall upward trend has not reversed, short-term consolidation in the 4220-4300 range may be imminent.

If gold can break through $4381, it could challenge higher levels at $4438 and even $4570. Conversely, to maintain the rally, support at $4200 must hold.

Key Price Levels for Reference

• Support: 4300, 4220, 4130
• Resistance: 4381, 4438, 4570

WTI Crude Oil: Rebound Limited, Downward Pressure Remains

WTI crude oil rose by 1.16% on Wednesday, reaching a high of $56.09. However, technical outlook is not optimistic—crude has fallen for four consecutive trading days and hit a four-year low, indicating a short-term correctional rebound may occur, but upside potential could be limited.

If the rebound faces resistance at $57.0, the market may resume its decline, testing support levels at $55.0 and even $52.0. To reverse the medium-term downtrend, a clear breakout above $59.0 is necessary.

Key Price Levels for Reference

• Support: 55.0, 52.5, 50.0
• Resistance: 57.0, 59.0, 61.5

Nasdaq 100: Downside Risks Persist, Rebound Shows Weakness

The Nasdaq 100 index is temporarily stable around 25,000 points, currently battling near 25,200. Technical indicators are warning—AO suggests increasing downside momentum, cautioning against a weak rebound.

If the index faces resistance at 25,500 and falls back, it could further decline toward 25,000. If support fails, 24,000 points come into risk.

Key Price Levels for Reference

• Support: 25200, 24900, 24000
• Resistance: 26000, 26300, 27600

Overall Tips

The US dollar index is testing support and resistance levels repeatedly, while commodities generally face correction pressures. The Nasdaq 100’s downside risk has not been fully released. Investors should closely monitor whether the dollar index can hold above 98.0 and observe key breakouts or breakdowns across various assets at critical levels.