Technical review of asset trends under liquidity tightening: US Dollar Index, gold, Bitcoin, and Ethereum analysis

Market Background: Government Shutdown Impact on Liquidity Patterns

The US government shutdown has triggered a chain reaction, forcing the Treasury Department to withdraw大量 funds from the market to sustain daily operations, resulting in the TGA account absorbing over $700 billion in cash over the past three months. This move has produced effects similar to rate hikes, causing the total excess liquidity in the market to fall to its lowest point since the end of 2020. On Tuesday (November 4), the VIX fear index surged over 10%, and the entire Crypto market responded with a decline, reflecting a clear shift in investor sentiment.

It is worth noting that if the government shutdown ends around the second week of November, the Treasury will re-release hundreds of billions of dollars in liquidity, and market risk appetite is expected to gradually recover.

US Dollar Index: The Battle at the Hundred-Point Level

The US Dollar Index has risen consecutively over the past five trading days, regaining the 100 integer level. However, strong resistance has formed around 100.5, and the market should be cautious about the possibility of a short-term rebound lacking sufficient momentum.

The period around November 5 becomes a critical technical window for the US Dollar Index. If the index successfully breaks through the 100 level, it may challenge the 100.3 and even 101.30 levels. Conversely, failure to hold above 100 could risk a return to the medium-term downtrend.

Key Levels for the US Dollar Index

• Support: 100.0, 99.2, 97.7
• Resistance: 100.5, 101.5, 103.0

Gold: Rebound Foundation Gradually Stabilizing

Gold rose 0.99% on Wednesday (November 5), reaching a high of $3,978.6. In the short term, the $3900 to $3930 zone provides solid support, and the price has not broken below the Gann 2/1 angle line, indicating a brewing short-term rebound opportunity.

If gold successfully holds above the 4000 level, it may continue to rebound toward 4050 and even 4100 USD. However, to fundamentally reverse the recent downtrend, a clear break above $4110 is necessary.

Key Levels on the Gold Daily Chart

• Support: 3930, 3900, 3760
• Resistance: 4000, 4110, 4200

Ethereum: Signs of Increasing Weakness Already Evident

Ethereum dropped 8.79% on Tuesday, with a low of $3,055, approaching the psychological $3000 level. More importantly, ETH has broken below the lower boundary of the downtrend channel, with technical patterns indicating an accelerated downtrend has formed, and the short-term decline has not yet bottomed out.

Currently, ETH is trading at around $2.95K, very close to the $3000 support. If resistance at $3700 hampers a rebound, the price may further test support near $3000 and even $2700. The only way to reverse the downtrend is to break through the resistance at $3900.

Key Levels on the ETH Daily Chart

• Support: 3050, 3000, 2700
• Resistance: 3700, 3900, 4000

Bitcoin: The 100,000 Level Faces Ongoing Tests

Bitcoin fell 4.77% on Tuesday, with a low of $98,898, briefly breaking below the 100,000 level. Although it quickly rebounded above 100,000, persistent bearish signals suggest a new downtrend is forming, and the 100,000 level may ultimately struggle to hold.

The current Bitcoin price is around 87.57K, showing a significant retracement from previous analysis. If resistance at $104,500 hampers a rebound, the market may further probe support near the 100,000 level and $90,000. To fundamentally change the bearish trend, it must regain above $104,500 in the short term.

Key Levels on the Bitcoin Daily Chart

• Support: 100,000, 90,000, 80,000
• Resistance: 104,500, 110,000, 114,000

Overall, in a liquidity-tight environment, all assets face important technical hurdles. The progress in resolving the government shutdown will be a key variable influencing the overall market direction.