2024 US CPI Trend Forecast: A Chart to Understand Key Dates and Data

2024 US CPI Release Schedule in Taiwan Time

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the earliest inflation indicator released in the market and an important factor influencing asset price fluctuations. Since the US CPI release time precedes the Fed’s preferred PCE data, investors pay close attention to its schedule.

Here’s the key point: The US CPI is released on the first business day or the closest business day of each month. Due to daylight saving time, there are differences in Taiwan time—

• During Daylight Saving Time (mid-March to early November): 8:30 PM Taiwan Time
• During Standard Time (mid-November to mid-March): 9:30 PM Taiwan Time

2024 Release Schedule (Taiwan Time):

What’s the Difference Between US CPI, Core CPI, and PCE? A Quick Comparison

There are many inflation indicators in the market, but for investors, understanding a few core concepts is enough:

US CPI vs Core CPI: The main difference lies in calculation methods. CPI includes all items like food and energy, which are susceptible to oil price fluctuations; core CPI excludes food and energy, better reflecting underlying price trends. In simple terms, CPI is more volatile, while core CPI is more stable.

US CPI vs PCE Data: These are two concepts often confused. CPI uses Laspeyres weighting, PCE uses chain-weighting—simply put, PCE more accurately reflects consumers’ substitution effects when prices rise (e.g., switching to other energy sources after oil prices surge), smoothing out peaks and troughs in inflation. That’s why the Fed trusts PCE more.

Year-over-Year vs Month-over-Month: Year-over-year compares to the same period last year, eliminating seasonal factors and more reliably reflecting true trends; month-over-month is more volatile. Investors should focus on the annual rate.

Two Key Indicators for Investors:

• US CPI Year-over-Year → Released earliest, market reacts most intensely
• US PCE Year-over-Year → Released slightly later but used as the Fed’s decision basis, equally important

Breakdown of US CPI Components: Which Items Are the Most “Influential”?

US CPI consists of over ten expenditure categories, but investors should focus on the highest-weighted ones:

• Housing Rent (30–40%) ← Largest weight, also the easiest to influence inflation
• Food and Beverages (13–15%) ← Second largest, prone to volatility
• Energy (6–8%) ← Smaller weight but most volatile
• Other Items (Transport, Medical, Education, etc.) ← Combined 30–50%

Practical Tip: When housing and food prices keep rising, inflation is hard to fall quickly. Conversely, if these two stabilize or decline, the overall CPI tends to move downward.

How Will US CPI Trend in 2024? Key Drivers Here

Two main forces will influence the US CPI in 2024:

Driver 1: US Election Year Effect

The US presidential election will be held in November 2024. Regardless of the party, candidates tend to make excessive promises during campaigns, possibly adopting aggressive policies. Coupled with current geopolitical tensions, rising protectionism, and slowing globalization, these factors will push up import prices, ultimately reflected in CPI.

Driver 2: Fed’s Rate Cut Pace

According to CME Group forecasts, the market believes there’s a high probability of a 6-basis-point rate cut in 2024. This indicates expectations of a declining CPI trend throughout the year, but the decline may not be smooth—bottoming out in Q1, rebounding in Q2, then falling again in H2.

Strong US Economy Makes Rapid CPI Decline Difficult

IMF’s latest forecast shows:

• US GDP growth in 2024 is expected to be 2.1%, ranking second among major economies, behind some emerging markets
• Global inflation will fall to 5.8% in 2024, but as a major economy, the US’s inflation level will be hard to lower significantly

What does this mean? The US economy remains resilient, with stable employment and steady consumption, supporting high price levels. Even if the Fed cuts rates, CPI is unlikely to drop sharply.

The Red Sea Crisis Adds Variables: Shipping Costs Push Up Inflation

Don’t forget recent events—the instability in the Red Sea has led shipping companies to reroute, significantly increasing transit times and costs from Asia to Europe. Since December 2023, freight rates on Asia-Europe routes have more than doubled.

While this impact isn’t as severe as the “Ever Given” blocking the Suez Canal in 2021, regional logistics disruptions will eventually push up consumer goods prices. This is another upward pressure on CPI in 2024.

Outlook for US CPI in 2024: Mainly Downward, but Q2 Will Rebound

Based on the above analysis:

Final Words: The market consensus is that US CPI will generally trend downward in 2024, but this decline won’t be smooth. After bottoming in Q1, a rebound in Q2 is to be expected, which could bring short-term pressure to US stocks. Investors should pay close attention to the release times of CPI on the first business day of each month (8 PM or 9 PM Taiwan time) to adjust their positions accordingly.