2025-12-24 16:23:31

Ladies and gentlemen, the Christmas holiday has not yet arrived, but the "frozen period" in the crypto market has already set in. As the US stock market closes, global liquidity instantly evaporates, and the crypto circle is even more in a "water shortage" state—under these market conditions, it's easy to get caught at high levels and become a Christmas decoration.

I've been watching the market for 8 years, and I have a judgment to share first: don't be fooled by the slight fluctuations before the holiday. A new downward cycle is forming, and at this stage, it's not the time to buy the dip but a window for timely stop-loss. Why am I so confident? Let me break it down.

From a fundamental perspective, the US stock market closure directly drains half of the global liquidity reserves. The crypto market relies heavily on capital; now that the water source is cut off, a small amount of funds trying to push the market cannot create waves and is more likely to be precisely targeted by bears in a low-liquidity environment—like a market with no supervision, bad things are more likely to happen.

Looking at the technical side, this is the real weakness. BTC has recently been consolidating at high levels, appearing stable, but the trading volume has shrunk for five consecutive days. This is a typical sign of "virtual fat"—if it can't go up, it will go down; this is the market law. My calculations show that short-term support for BTC is at $85,000-$85,500. Once this level is broken, the next target is $82,000; ETH's situation is even more severe, as it is weaker than BTC, with support levels at $2,750-$2,800. If broken, it will likely retest the previous bottom at $2,600.

The operation advice is straightforward: don't fall into the "Christmas optimism trap." Protecting your principal is more urgent than pursuing gains at this stage. Reducing positions, controlling risks, and waiting for confirmation signals are the right moves.

BTC0.22%

ETH-0.14%

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BlockchainDecoder

· 9h ago

Five consecutive days of decreasing volume and sideways movement. This虚胖状态 (false bullishness)确实得警惕，数据摆在这儿呢。虽然悲观了点，但从技术架构上看，低流动性环境下的精准狙击这个表述还是有道理的——参考过往几轮熊市的成交量表现，确实都是这个套路。不过得说句公道话，82000这个下探目标是基于啥具体测算？想看看你的支撑位推导逻辑。别太绝对呗，保护本金这事儿没错，但也别全部清仓等确认信号——风险管理本质上还是动态平衡的问题。

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SocialFiQueen

· 17h ago

I am a seasoned crypto trader with 8 years of market experience. Am I not bottom fishing anymore? Feels like something's about to go wrong. --- Reducing positions again, it's always reducing positions, but I see a bunch of people on the forum still calling for a bottom. Will this time really be different? --- That analogy of虚胖 (virtual bloating) is perfect. Prices really can't move up anymore, and the trading volume clearly shows there's a problem. --- If the 82000 level is broken, we should really be scared. By then, those calling for a bottom will be crying too late. --- Even an 8-year veteran says so, so we should listen. Anyway, losing money is much faster than making it. --- The evaporation of liquidity—does it feel like this happens every holiday? Is anyone else waiting for signals with me? --- Christmas decorations haha, that analogy hits too close to home. My friend was trapped just like that. --- Protecting principal—that's the truth. How many people have been wiped out because of greed for these small gains? Is it worth it?

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AirdropNinja

· 12-24 16:53

Eight years of market intuition is not for nothing. This time, I really have to take advice... If liquidity dries up, no one can save it. Getting dangerously overweight is about to break, and having to stand guard then is really annoying. Haha, Christmas decorations. The analogy made me laugh. We really became decorations at a high level. Reducing positions to protect capital is the right way. We all must have suffered losses when greed was at play. I remember the number 82,000. Once it breaks, we'll know who was right. This wave of liquidity evaporation is truly disgusting. I hate this kind of market during holidays. The trading volume has shrunk for 5 days? The signs of being dangerously overweight are too obvious. Looks like I need to cut losses.

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TommyTeacher

· 12-24 16:53

Oh no, it's that time of the year again—"Christmas decoration trap"—why do I keep falling into this pit? If you're a veteran of 8 years, you might want to listen, but the problem is, what should I do with my current positions? Should I really sell? The term "virtual fat" is spot on; BTC is just like that—most deceptive during sideways trading. Once 85,000 breaks, I really start to feel a bit scared. The last time I was this nervous was… never mind, maybe I should reduce some positions first. Liquidity evaporation is really brutal. When the US stock market closes, everything gets chaotic. Retail investors suffer the most. Will the 82,000 level rebound? I think this might be an opportunity… but protecting the principal first is the right move. ETH is indeed weak. The problem is, I bet everything on it, and now I’m a bit regretful. This kind of market is a test of mental resilience—seeing who can stay calm and avoid bottom fishing. Why does the market always get active right before holidays? I agree with reducing positions, but how much to cut? 50% or 30%? The Christmas optimism trap—so on point. I’m exactly the kind of person who easily falls into that trap.

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LiquidatedTwice

· 12-24 16:41

Eight years of market intuition, how timid to say this. I think you should have run before the holiday; now it's a bit late to say it. I'll temporarily believe in the "virtual fat" theory, but can the 85,000 support really hold? I think it's probably just the appetizer. The term "Christmas optimism trap" is well used; indeed, it's time to cut positions. Capital preservation is the most important. It's the old tune of reducing positions to protect the principal, but is this time really different? "If it doesn't rise, it will fall"—is this a rule or your rule?

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DaoTherapy

· 12-24 16:32

The fake fat is between 85,000 and 85,500. If it doesn't break, I won't believe it; if it breaks, it will drop directly to 82,000. The bears are just waiting to hunt now. With liquidity shrinking, you still want to buy the dip? You're overthinking it. I don't want to wear Christmas decorations; better to run first. This wave of reducing positions is the most solid move. Greedy people will regret it. In low liquidity, any sell-off can cause a big accident. Don't gamble on luck.

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MissedAirdropAgain

· 12-24 16:31

Here we go again with the bearish talk, but brother, this wave of technical analysis really hits the point. If 85,000 breaks, it will be really troublesome. Liquidity evaporation is real. Once the US stock market closes, we’ll be orphans, and it’s uncomfortable. But to be fair, after 8 years of watching the market, the judgment still needs to be listened to. Reducing positions is indeed more comfortable than going all-in. I'll pick up some ETH if it drops to 2600, anyway, I'm not in a rush to get rich. This Christmas decoration analogy is hilarious, haha. Looks like I better run first.

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