A recent number has sparked quite a bit of discussion in the community. According to Galaxy's research data, when measured by the 2020 US dollar purchasing power, Bitcoin's actual value is currently about $99,848, not quite breaking the $100,000 mark.

It sounds a bit sobering, but the underlying logic is worth pondering. This isn't about denying how rapid Bitcoin's rise has been, but rather revealing a often-overlooked reality: inflation has quietly rewritten our understanding of price milestones. For this institution-led cycle, this difference is particularly interesting.

What's going on? The core issue lies in the US dollar's purchasing power. Over the past few years, the dollar has become increasingly less valuable. In other words, the current nominal price needs to be multiplied by 0.8 to be equivalent to its value in 2020. What does this mean? The $100,000 in 2025 actually corresponds to about $80,000 in 2020. Conversely, to reach the 2020 purchasing power of $100,000, Bitcoin's nominal price would need to approach $125,000—and the peak of this cycle is roughly hovering around that area. This is the true root of various controversies.

This is especially important for institutional investors. Pension funds and similar institutions don't care much about nominal gains; what they truly care about is how much they can earn after accounting for inflation. This also means that for Bitcoin to advance as a genuine macro asset, it must pass this hurdle.

There's another layer of complexity. In 2025, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics paused the release of CPI data due to funding issues, making the assessment of real value even more uncertain. Different statistical methods yield different results, and the already chaotic data has become even harder to interpret. The market's reactions also confirm this value discrepancy—Bitcoin experienced a significant pullback after its October peak.