#MarketsRepriceFedRateHikes
Markets Re-price Fed Interest Rate Expectations: Hopes for Cuts Postponed, Risk of Increases on the Table
The US Federal Reserve's (Fed) cautious stance and the inflation risk triggered by tariffs are sharply changing expectations regarding the interest rate path in the markets. Investors who in recent weeks were pricing in an "aggressive rate cut in 2025" scenario are now considering both a postponement of cuts and, with a limited probability, a rate hike.
Fed's Latest Message: Wait-and-See, No Hasty Cuts
The Fed kept its policy rate stable at 4.25–4.50%, maintaining its June projections of a half-point rate cut by the end of 2025. However, Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that "no one is bound to this path with great confidence" and stated that the Trump administration's import tariffs would lead to "a significant increase in inflation in the coming months."
The Fed's projections foresee growth slowing to 1.4% in 2025, unemployment rising to 4.5%, and inflation remaining at 3% by the end of the year—a scenario described as "moderate stagflation." Disagreements within the committee are also evident: 7 of the 19 members believe no rate cuts will be needed in 2025.
Market Reaction: Rate Cuts Delayed, Rate Hike Pricing Begins
A majority of economists surveyed by Reuters expect the Fed to keep rates steady at least until September; 59 of 105 economists predict the first cut will come in September, while a minority of 42% believe the cut will be delayed until the fourth quarter or later.
More noteworthy is the change in derivatives markets: with Brent oil rising to $97 and WTI to $95, investors have begun pricing in a 25% probability of a Fed rate hike in 2026. Concerns that rising energy costs will accelerate inflationary pass-through are weakening the “tariff cycle” narrative.
Asset Prices Seek Direction
Market reaction to recent Fed decisions has been cautious:
S&P 500 tested a record high and retreated, Nasdaq rose 0.3%, Dow remained flat
US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.2791%
Dollar index rose 0.35% after the decision
According to Morgan Stanley data, the S&P 500 provides an average monthly yield of 1.7% during periods when the Fed cuts interest rates—but this support is weakening with the postponement of cuts.
Analysis: Fed Faces Two-Way Risk
As Powell put it, “if there were no tariffs, cuts could already be on the agenda.” However, the pass-through of the cost shock from producer to consumer is not yet complete, and the Fed wants to “wait a few months and see the data.”
This is a clear message for the markets: Rate cuts are on the table, but not automatic. If tariffs keep inflation above its 2% target, the risk increases that the Fed will either slow down its rate cuts in 2026 (only 25 bp per year in 2026-2027) or move towards rate hikes.
The critical threshold for investors will be oil prices surpassing $100 and core PCE remaining above 3%. Until then, "wait-and-see" pricing will continue to keep volatility high across asset classes.

#USIranWarMayEscalateToGroundWar
Ground War is on the Horizon: Because War Isn't Damaging the Economy, the Economy Is Waking Up War
The five-week-long US-Iran war has now gone beyond being a "tension limited to airstrikes." The Pentagon is planning weeks of ground operations. The USS Tripoli has landed in the region with 3,500 Marines. Officials speaking to the Washington Post say that Special Forces and infantry units are preparing to raid the Strait of Hormuz and Harg Island, through which 90% of Iranian oil flows.
Tehran's response is clear: "If American soldiers set foot on land, we will unleash fire upon them." Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf accuses the US of "publicly discussing, secretly planning an invasion." Twelve American soldiers have already been wounded in Saudi Arabia when an E-3 Sentry spy plane was shot down.
And we are still talking about "war affecting the economy."
Wrong. The economy isn't affecting war, the economy is calling for war.
The Math of the Strait of Hormuz
One-fifth of the world's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. The strait is effectively closed, tankers cannot pass through, and the Riyadh-Washington line is on edge. By allowing 20 Pakistani-flagged ships "two passages per day," Iran is essentially saying: I'm holding the valve.
The first point of the US's 15-point "ceasefire plan" is the opening of the strait. This is no coincidence. Because the issue is not the nuclear program, the issue is the flow of gas. Seizing Harg Island is described as "cutting off Iran's economic lifeline." In other words, the target is not the regime, but the income.
Trump is threatening to strike Iranian energy infrastructure if the strait is not opened. Tehran, on the other hand, says it will "boldly strike" US bases in the Gulf. Two missiles that hit the Ras Laffan gas facility in Qatar caused "limited damage" but created a shockwave in the markets. The message was received: If the next missile hits the desalination plant, the Gulf will run out of water.
The Price of the “Final Blow”
The White House is marketing the ground operation as the “final blow.” Not a full-scale invasion, but “just raids lasting weeks.” How wonderful. Iraq and Afghanistan also started as “weeks,” and as the Turkish Foreign Ministry reminded us, the result was “more radicalization and terrorism.”
The Pentagon says it has to “offer the commander-in-chief maximum options.” Translation: There’s a war on the table, and we’re preparing the menu. Rubio says “we’re not currently deployed for a ground operation,” but adds in the same sentence, “objectives can be achieved without them.” So the door is ajar.
Meanwhile, 13 US soldiers have been killed and more than 300 wounded in the last month. Trump was saying as early as March 20th, “I’m not sending troops, it’s a waste of time.” He changed his mind when Iran rejected the offers. So what was considered a “waste of time” was actually a “bargaining chip.”
The Real Front: The Balance Sheets
Iran says it will make US soldiers “food for sharks in the Persian Gulf.” Ghalibaf shouts, “Our missiles are in place, our resolve has increased.” This isn’t rhetoric, it’s insurance. Because Tehran knows: the US’s concern isn’t exporting democracy, but supply security.
War ruins the economy, yes. The stock market experienced its “worst day” of the war on March 27th. But let’s be more honest: war comes because the economy is ruined. Inflation, energy prices, the election cycle… An “external enemy” is always the cleanest way to make the domestic price be paid.
And the most painful part is this: Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey are talking about peace in Islamabad. Neither the US nor Iran is at the table. Because both sides actually want Harg Island, not the table. One to cut it off, the other to protect it.
The possibility of a ground war is no longer a “threat,” but an “option.” And this option is triggered not by ideology, but by a valve.