The upcoming week is crucial for the stock, cryptocurrency, and U.S. Treasury markets. Employment, inflation, and interest rates will simultaneously provide answers, leaving no room for ambiguous market interpretations. This essentially serves as a concentrated test of the U.S. economic fundamentals, and the results will directly influence the Federal Reserve's policy stance, market expectations for interest rates, and ultimately determine the direction of risk asset prices.

On Monday, the earliest release will be the New York Fed Manufacturing Index for December. As the first regional manufacturing data to be published, the market will focus on whether manufacturing continues to contract and whether this data aligns with subsequent PMI signals. The importance of this data is moderate, but it sets the tone for macroeconomic expectations for the entire week.

Tuesday is the real test. In the morning, the November Non-Farm Payrolls report and unemployment rate will be released, which are highly anticipated employment data. The key is whether employment slows significantly and if this can validate the narrative of a soft landing for the economy. Additionally, November retail sales data will be published, directly reflecting consumer spending strength in the U.S. This data will ultimately influence GDP and monetary policy decisions. In the afternoon, S&P Global's Manufacturing and Services PMI data will be released to verify the health of the business sector.

Thursday is the key moment for inflation data. The European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision, with markets paying close attention to whether it continues to signal rate cuts. In the U.S., the November CPI inflation data will be released, which is a core basis for the Fed’s internal stance of "reluctance to cut rates." Focus will be on the core CPI and inflation stickiness. At the same time, the initial jobless claims report will be published; last time, this data showed the largest increase since March 2020, so attention should be paid to whether the trend continues to worsen.

Friday is a super risk day. The Bank of Japan's rate decision is highly expected to raise interest rates, and historical experience suggests that BOJ rate hikes often trigger cross-market ripple effects. Consumer confidence and inflation expectation data will also be released simultaneously.

The core logic of the week is clear: employment data sets the direction, inflation data provides answers, and rate decisions create volatility. If employment cools and inflation recedes, risk assets will benefit, and market sentiment around cryptocurrencies will improve. Conversely, if employment remains strong and inflation sticky, rate cut expectations will be pushed further back, putting pressure on the entire market. Full attention throughout the week is essential.