XRP's Stagnant Price Explained: Why ETF Demand Isn't Moving the Market Yet

Source: ETHNews Original Title: XRP’s Stagnant Price Explained: Why ETF Demand Isn’t Moving the Market Yet Original Link: https://www.ethnews.com/xrps-stagnant-price-explained-why-etf-demand-isnt-moving-the-market-yet/ XRP’s recent sideways action has frustrated traders, yet analyst Zach Rector argues the consolidation is part of a much more nuanced market shift.

Speaking on a podcast, he described the current environment as a tug-of-war between institutional accumulation and persistent sell-side pressure on public exchanges, a clash that has kept the price from reacting to strong demand behind the scenes.

ETF Buying Is Hidden from the Spot Market

Rector noted that the widespread belief that ETF inflows automatically boost asset prices simply doesn’t apply to XRP right now. Most of the institutional accumulation is taking place over the counter, away from the order books that determine the asset’s spot price. This means XRP is being absorbed quietly rather than competing with traders on open exchanges.

He pointed to November as a perfect illustration. Roughly $803 million flowed into XRP ETFs during the month, yet almost the exact same amount, about $808 million, was sold on centralized exchanges. Since public market pricing reacts only to activity that hits the exchanges directly, the sell pressure completely neutralized the institutional accumulation taking place elsewhere.

Exchange Outflows Dominate Short-Term Price Behavior

Rector explained that the heavy outflow of XRP from exchanges kept the asset pinned in a narrow range. Holders rotated into stablecoins or waited on the sidelines, which created a steady source of downward friction. He emphasized that a real shift occurs only when ETF-linked demand begins arriving on exchanges instead of being absorbed privately.

“When the buy pressure starts landing directly on order books,” he said, “momentum changes fast.”

Market Cap Swings Reveal How Quickly XRP Can Move

To show how sensitive XRP becomes once buyers gain control, Rector compared recent market cap cycles. In November 2024, XRP added nearly $100 billion in valuation in just a few weeks as inflows surged. A year later, as selling increased, $41 billion evaporated over the same period. For him, these extremes prove that XRP can accelerate violently when sentiment flips – even after long stretches of stagnation.

XRP Returning to $1? Rector Says the Odds Are Near Zero

Addressing one of the community’s recurring fears, Rector dismissed the idea of XRP revisiting $1. He argued that the market now benefits from deeper liquidity, more consistent passive accumulation, and a stronger long-term investor base than ever before. According to him, only an extraordinary, unpredictable shock could force XRP that low.

Strong Bids Are Positioned Below $2

Rector said buyers are already preparing for any dips, with heavy interest forming between $1.80 and $1.90. He mentioned having his own bid sitting at $1.91, noting that a brief retest of $1.80 wouldn’t surprise him but breaking much lower would be difficult. Throughout 2025, XRP has consistently established higher lows, near $1.60, $1.77, and $1.81, reinforcing the broader uptrend.

What the Latest XRP Price Chart Shows

The latest four-hour chart supports Rector’s argument for a controlled, rather than panicked, consolidation. XRP has been oscillating between roughly $1.98 and $2.10, forming a slow, compressed drift near the $2.00 mark.

Volume has thinned noticeably, which often precedes a larger move as liquidity concentrates at key levels. Despite several sharp intraday swings, buyers continue stepping in near $2.00, preventing any deeper breakdown and keeping the structure of higher lows intact. The price compression suggests a buildup phase rather than a trend reversal, consistent with Rector’s view that the market is waiting for ETF-driven demand to hit exchanges.