Raoul Pal Says Crypto Follows Macro, Not Bitcoin Halvings

Raoul Pal argues crypto trades like a macro asset, driven by interest rates, debt and liquidity rather than Bitcoin halving events.

He links current cycles to post-2008 debt rollovers, where rising interest costs force liquidity expansion across markets.

Pal expects the next crypto cycle peak in late 2026, citing debt timelines and demographic factors extending the expansion.

Raoul Pal told attendees that crypto markets follow macro forces, not Bitcoin halving schedules. He delivered the remarks during his Opening Keynote and Macro Teach-In at Solana Breakpoint 2025 in Abu Dhabi. Pal explained how interest rates, debt structures and demographics drive crypto cycles and how liquidity growth sustains market momentum.

Macro Forces Replace Halving Narratives

During the session, Pal said crypto behaves like a macro asset tied to global financial conditions. Notably, he rejected the idea that Bitcoin halvings determine market peaks. Instead, he linked price cycles to interest rate trends and expanding debt burdens. According to Pal, these forces shape liquidity flows across all risk assets, including crypto.

He stressed that narratives often distract investors from structural drivers. However, Pal said macro liquidity consistently outweighs popular cycle theories. He added that crypto responds to the same pressures facing equities and bonds. This framing set the stage for his explanation of debt mechanics.

Debt Maturity Cycle Explains Liquidity Growth

Pal traced the current cycle back to policy decisions after the 2008 financial crisis. At that time, governments issued large amounts of low-interest debt with three-to-five-year maturities

Since then, borrowers have repeatedly rolled that debt forward. Notably, each rollover increased total obligations through added interest costs. Those rising interest payments required new liquidity to service existing debt

As a result, liquidity expanded steadily across the system. Pal said this process created predictable cycles of contraction and expansion. Therefore, crypto markets moved in sync with those debt-driven liquidity waves.

Why the Cycle Peak Shifts to Late 2026

Building on that framework, Pal placed the current market near a post-trough recovery phase. He said the next expansion should continue as debt servicing adds liquidity. However, he pushed back on expectations for a 2025 peak. Instead, he pointed to late 2026 as the likely cycle top.

Pal said his team at Global Macro Investor reached this conclusion by studying demographics and debt timelines. He argued that these factors extend the cycle beyond common forecasts. According to Pal, understanding crypto as a macro asset clarifies both timing and market behavior.

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