Bitcoin Will 'Drop Below 70K USD' Due to Japan's Hawkish Monetary Policy: According to Analyst

According to many macroeconomic analysts, Bitcoin may continue to correct downward to the $70,000 level if the Bank of Japan (BoJ) proceeds with interest rate hikes as expected on December 19. The Bank of Japan (BOJ)'s interest rate hike has led to a 20-30% adjustment in Bitcoin prices. According to data published by AndrewBTC, each time the Bank of Japan (BOJ) increased interest rates since 2024, it coincided with Bitcoin price drops of over 20%. In a post on X on Saturday, the analyst highlighted Bitcoin’s declines of approximately 23% in March 2024, 26% in July 2024, and 31% in January 2025.

AndrewBTC warns that similar downside risks may reappear if the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raises interest rates on Friday. A recent Reuters poll showed that most economists forecast another rate hike at the December policy meeting. The thesis focuses on Japan’s role in global liquidity. In the past, the Bank of Japan (BOJ)'s rate hikes have strengthened the Japanese yen, making borrowing and investing in risky assets more expensive. This often forces traders to reverse their “interest rate carry trades between yen and market rates,” reducing liquidity in the global markets. When liquidity tightens, Bitcoin faces pressure as investors cut leverage and reduce risk exposure during risk-averse phases. Analyst EX believes BTC will “drop below $70,000” in the current macroeconomic environment.

Bitcoin Drop Model Targets the Same $70,000 Zone The daily chart of Bitcoin also shows technical warning signals, with price action consolidating within a classic bearish flag pattern.

This pattern formed after BTC sharply declined from the $105,000–$110,000 range in November, followed by a narrow upward consolidation channel. Such structures often signal a pause before the trend continues. If the price breaks below the lower trendline of the flag pattern, it could trigger another downward move, with projections targeting the $70,000–$72,500 zone. Several analysts, including James Check and Sellén, have issued similar bearish target forecasts last month.