#比特币市场动态 Looking back at Bitcoin's price movements, I can't help but feel the cyclical nature of the market. Polymarket predicts a 45% chance of surpassing $100,000 within the year, which reminds me of the 2017 bull market. At that time, there were similar predictions, but the market surged and then pulled back. The current market sentiment feels familiar, but the underlying logic has changed significantly. Institutional entry and regulatory attitude shifts have added new variables to this rally. However, a 45% probability still indicates high uncertainty. Based on historical experience, short-term forecasts are often unreliable. I prefer to focus on long-term trends and fundamental changes. Whether or not Bitcoin reaches $100,000 in the end, its development path remains full of challenges and opportunities. As someone who has experienced multiple bull and bear cycles, I recommend staying rational and managing risks well. After all, the market always oscillates between despair and euphoria.