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The Bank of Japan is about to raise interest rates again, but this time the crypto market doesn't seem to react much. Compared to the previous sharp fluctuations, this time is really different.

Remember a few months ago? With just one rate adjustment, Bitcoin plummeted from 65,000 to 50,000, Ethereum dropped from 3000 to 2000, and along with the yen appreciation, the market fell into panic. This time, the situation looks to be reversing — the same interest rate hike signals but with a completely different response.

Why isn't the market so scared this time? The key points are two: First, speculators have already accumulated a lot of yen long positions, so trying to trigger dramatic volatility again in the short term isn't easy. Second, Japan’s government bond yields have been rising all year, with both short-term and long-term bonds hitting new records. The market was already prepared — rate hikes are no longer surprises.

More importantly, the Federal Reserve just cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week and also signaled liquidity support. Global liquidity isn’t as tight, and extreme scenarios like large-scale unwinding of yen carry trades and surging risk aversion are unlikely to recur.

But the story isn’t over. Industry sources indicate that Japanese officials believe rates might need to rise above 0.75% to approach the end of this cycle, with some even suggesting that reaching 1% would still be considered low. This involves an important concept — "neutral interest rate," which simply means the "normal temperature" of the economy — neither overheating nor cooling down. The BOJ’s own estimate range is roughly between 1% and 2.5%, offering plenty of flexibility.

Governor Ueda previously casually mentioned this, sparking market speculation. Currently, most market observers bet that the BOJ will raise rates to 0.75% next Friday. But what everyone is more focused on is whether the BOJ will announce a new "neutral interest rate" outlook, which would directly imply there’s room for additional rate hikes.

The market currently forecasts the final rate to stay around 1.25%, meaning there could be two more hikes. Although the BOJ still maintains that its policy remains relatively accommodative, officials are carefully reviewing loan data and bank lending trends to assess whether the current rate level is truly accommodative.

Rate hikes will come sooner or later, but this time the market has buffers and expectations. The old routine of plunging at the mere mention of a rate hike might really break this time.