Many people are still trading cryptocurrencies based on the old cycle logic—watching halving events, following emotions, and chasing quick profits. But frankly, that approach has already become ineffective.

In the past three halving cycles (2013, 2017, 2021), the reason they precisely triggered bull markets was simple: retail investors dominated the market, and sentiment dictated prices. The halving event acted as a code; everyone was optimistic and bought in sync, and then the cycle arrived. But now, it's completely different.

What is the most critical change? **The buyer ecosystem has changed.** After the US SEC approved spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, institutional investors like pension funds and insurance companies—"long-term money"—have officially entered the market. The California Public Employees' Retirement Fund spent six months conducting due diligence before deciding to allocate 0.3% of their assets. The decision logic for these institutions isn't emotion-driven; it's actuarial—focused on risk-adjusted returns, historical volatility, and inflation hedging value.

As a result, pricing power has shifted from retail investors to institutions.

Another figure that illustrates the point even more: Bitcoin's market capitalization grew from $10 billion in 2013 to $2.3 trillion in 2025—an increase of over 2,000 times. What does this mean? **The supply and demand forces have completely reversed.** BlackRock's iBit inflows can reach $3.2 billion in a single day, while the newly minted Bitcoin supply from halving is just over $40 million. One is the scale of capital, the other is physical supply. Do you understand? Halving has shifted from a "determinative variable" to a negligible "marginal factor."

Even more concerning is the macro liquidity linkage. Data shows that in 2025, Bitcoin's price has a correlation coefficient of 0.93 with the Federal Reserve's balance sheet—what does this imply? Before 2020, it was only 0.32. More than tripled. What does this indicate? **Bitcoin now almost entirely moves in tandem with Federal Reserve policies.** When the Fed injects liquidity, Bitcoin rises; when it tightens, Bitcoin falls. The old "code-driven" logic is completely invalidated.

So, what is driving the market now? It’s the dance between institutional and sovereign capital. The institutional side has formed a "three-stage rocket": ETFs as a compliant channel (the global spot Bitcoin ETF market has already exceeded $120 billion, with BlackRock's iBit alone accounting for $80 billion), corporate balance sheet allocations (Microsoft owns 200,000 BTC, Tesla has allocated $1.8 billion in Bitcoin for inflation hedging), and financial infrastructure is also upgrading.

In simple terms, the old cycle has ended. A new super cycle has already begun.