Ether is flashing a signal the market has only seen a handful of times before. After a 45% drawdown from its $4,758 peak to $2,621, $ETH traded close to the realized price of whales holding over 100,000 ETH a level historically associated with strong accumulation phases.

In the past five years, this setup has appeared only four times, each preceding major rallies, including one that delivered a 260% upside. The realized price reflects the average cost basis of large holders, and when market price converges with it, selling pressure typically weakens while long-term confidence strengthens.

Technically, ETH is forming a V-shaped recovery alongside a falling wedge pattern, both classic bullish structures. If confirmed, analysts see a medium-to-long-term pathway toward the $5,000 level, potentially unfolding into 2026.

While short-term volatility remains, on-chain data suggests ETH may be entering a high-conviction accumulation zone rather than a distribution phase. Historically, moments like this haven’t lasted long and they’ve often rewarded patient buyers.