Looking back, I can't help but feel a surge of emotion. The four-year cycle theory was once the gospel for us old-school investors, but now it has become a thing of the past. On December 1, 2025, the Federal Reserve quietly ended quantitative tightening, injecting new vitality into the crypto market. Perhaps this day marks the true beginning of a new cycle.

Bitcoin halving is no longer the decisive factor; the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is the real driving force. Just look at the data: the balance sheet stopped shrinking, M2 year-over-year growth turned positive, and reverse repurchase agreements are nearing exhaustion... These indicators all signal the arrival of a new era.

However, this bull market is destined to be a reshuffle of winners and losers. The altcoin mass exodus has already begun, and countless once-hot projects have fallen into dust. ETF approvals have also become a double-edged sword, bringing in new funds while accelerating the淘汰 of low-quality projects.

In the future, our focus will no longer be on the halving countdown, but on four key charts: the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, M2 growth rate, Bitcoin dominance, and the real yield of the 10-year US Treasury. These will serve as our new compass for market trends.

This new super cycle is not a celebration for all, but a feast where the winners take all. As a veteran who has experienced multiple ups and downs, I know that opportunities are fleeting. But at the same time, we must stay alert and not be blinded by air coins. Let us approach this new era with caution, seeking true value amid the transformation.