Why I'm holding LTC isn't about certainty—far from it. It's because I've actually compared it against other options and decided the risk calculus makes sense to me.

Here's what bugs me: most people trading these markets chase guarantees. But guarantees? They don't exist in this space. That's kind of the whole point.

My real question isn't whether I'm right about timing. My question is: what still holds up if I'm completely wrong on timing? If my thesis breaks, would the fundamentals I originally bought into still be there? That's the filter I use.

Timing is almost impossible to nail. But buying something that survives being wrong on timing? That's something worth thinking about.