Gulf Stream Daily News | 2025.12.13

Brothers, today the market is showing a "wait and see" vibe before the trend shifts. The key points affecting the direction are threefold: the “effectiveness” of the Federal Reserve’s rate cut, the “strange wind” of Christmas, and whether big funds dare to enter the market.

First, let’s discuss the major recent event. The Federal Reserve’s 25 basis point rate cut led the market to a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” scenario—after the announcement, Bitcoin briefly surged to 94,500, but then quickly dove back to around 92,000. This indicates that rate cuts alone aren’t enough; the market fears a slowdown in future rate cuts. This “positive news exhausted” tone casts a shadow over short-term trends.

The real uncertainty lies in the next two weeks. Around Christmas, the market will enter a strange phase where “institutions take a break, retail investors take charge.” Liquidity will be low, and even small buy or sell orders can cause wild swings in prices. The good news is that in past years, this period often produced a “Christmas rally,” driven by retail FOMO and year-end bonuses, potentially pushing prices higher. The bad news is that this kind of market movement is like the wind—fast to come and quick to go. If large funds (whales) remain on the sidelines without participating, sustained rebounds will be difficult.

Regarding funds, current signals are contradictory. On one hand, reports show market panic is easing, and put options are becoming less expensive, which is a positive sign. On the other hand, major players remain cautious; perpetual contract leverage participation is low, indicating whales are waiting for more definitive signals. Don’t forget the incident where the U.S. government confiscated assets from the “prince” group—such black swan events keep big players on edge, making them hesitant to enter easily.

Gulf Stream View: In summary, the short-term (pre-Christmas) market may oscillate at low levels or even see a slight rebound driven by seasonal sentiment. However, whether the mid-term can truly turn bullish depends on two signals: 1. US ETF fund flows turning back into net inflows. 2. Bitcoin must strengthen and hold above the key bullish/bearish threshold of $95,000. Until then, don’t be fooled by short-term ups and downs; position management is more important than anything else. $BTC