1. Market Overview

Based on the provided ETH 14-day and 48-hour K-line data, the current market environment exhibits obvious high volatility and repeated battles between bulls and bears. ETH's current price is $3,061.76 (consistent with the most recent hourly K-line closing price). Recently, the price has experienced large fluctuations within a wide range, with the 14-day high at $3,447.44 and the low at $2,716.04. Recently, ETH underwent a rapid rebound and then declined again, with trading volume showing localized spikes during volatile periods (for example, the daily volume around the 12th reaching a maximum of 761,680), indicating fierce capital game and increased market disagreement between bulls and bears. Market news and mainstream analysis opinions have a clear influence on the current行情, but no decisive bullish or bearish signals have emerged, and overall market sentiment remains cautious.

2. Technical Analysis
From the 14-day K-line data, ETH shows a trend of sharp rise followed by oscillating decline. The recent high is $3,447.44, and the low was at $2,716.04. Initial support levels are preliminarily identified near the recent low of $3,045.31 and the earlier low of $2,716.04; short-term resistance levels are at the recent intraday high of $3,265.5 and $3,447.44. The 48-hour K-line further indicates that after breaking through the short-term high of $3,265.5, ETH quickly pulled back, with short-term support in the $3,060–3,070 range. Hourly fluctuations have increased, and bull-bear transitions are rapid. Volume peaks during breakthroughs and pullbacks at critical nodes, with hourly volume reaching a maximum of 107,494, suggesting that each key reversal is often associated with concentrated capital intervention. Trend judgment shows that after several days of rebound, ETH is signaling a top, with a short-term pullback to the previous platform range ($3,060–3,240). If it falls below $3,060, there is a risk of further downside; if it can rebound and stabilize above $3,230, it may challenge the resistance zone of $3,260–3,320 again.

3. News and Policy Interpretation
On the news front, the expiration of Deribit’s $4.3 billion BTC and ETH options has become an important variable affecting market sentiment recently, potentially triggering strong volatility at the expiration points. Reports mention liquidity changes and large investors increasing their positions, significantly impacting short-term trends. Additionally, news about long whale participation, net capital outflows from ETH and BTC, and ETF capital rotation marginally disturb ETH. There are no new policy measures; regulators have not disclosed major events within the past month. Mainstream news shows no significant bullish or policy bearish signals; the market is more focused on endogenous capital-driven factors and industry news.

4. Analyst Opinions
According to the original analyst: "ETH direction: Short, entry range 3280–3320, stop-loss 3350, take profit 3250–3220–3190, flexible entry, no need to time the market." This strategy has not yielded significant profit in the recent 48 hours. ETH broke above 3260 resistance and then pulled back, with the lowest point directly reaching the current $3,061.76, and some take-profit targets being realized early. Another analyst commented: "Yesterday, we executed 2 contract strategies, 1 take profit on a large order, 1 small stop-loss... The second was an attempt to short ETH at a single point, but after entering near 3160, we found it did not drop quickly but hovered around cost for a while... Conclusion: Whether in a bull or bear market, big profits are usually from longs; shorting only suits trash coins. High-quality coins like BTC and ETH should not be shorted daily, as it’s easy to get trapped." This aligns with ETH’s current rhythm: although it broke some key points, no catastrophic mass liquidation occurred, and the trend is in a bottoming phase with repeated testing.

5. Future Trend Forecast and Operational Suggestions
Based on daily and hourly K-line structures, ETH’s short-term amplitude has significantly expanded. The market is likely to continue oscillating within the 3060–3240 range, with strong support at $3,045. A further breakdown could target recent lows of $2,983 and $2,716. Resistance zones are at $3,230–3,260 and the recent high of $3,447. Operationally, after the recent decline to the lower end of the range, it’s not advisable to chase shorts lightly. Aggressive investors can consider building small positions in the 3045–3070 range and take profits near 3230–3260. If the price breaks below $3,045, reduce positions or stay on the sidelines, control leverage, and avoid sudden large volatility. Conservative investors are advised to wait for the price to return to the midline of the range or for volume breakthroughs before entering.

6. Risk Warning
ETH is currently in a high-volatility, wide-range oscillation zone. The maximum fluctuation within 14 days exceeded $700, with some trading days seeing nearly 20% daily volatility. The current price of $3,061.76 is close to key support levels. A valid breakdown may lead to further declines. Recent volume spikes combined with news stimuli increase the risk of panic selling or chasing. Trading must strictly control positions and stop-loss points, especially around options expiration and other extreme events. Before a clear trend forms, avoid blindly increasing positions and follow the market rationally. Overall, ETH will mainly oscillate within a range in the short term. Market participants should develop strategies based on key technical levels, volume, and external news, prioritizing risk management and trend following.