I recently came across an interesting debate—the two seasoned financial veterans discussing whether the A-shares can hold steady at 4000 points.

One of them frankly said he had already cleared his holdings, believing that the climb from 2600 to 4000 is more about valuation recovery than the start of a true bull market. Will it continue upward? That depends on whether outside funds are willing to spend.

The problem is this: IPOs are still happening, listed companies are raising funds through private placements, and major shareholders are lining up to reduce holdings. These withdrawals are happening at a quick pace. Although the savings pool of ordinary people is 160 trillion yuan, only a tiny fraction of that can flow into the stock market.

The imbalance in capital flow makes it very difficult for the index to continue strengthening. Recovery and incremental growth are entirely different matters.

What do you think? Is 4000 points a new starting point or a temporary high? Should retail investors continue to hold, or take profits and exit?