The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, and the financial world is buzzing all night. But if you look at BTC, it first rallies then crashes back down. Many people are starting to ask: Isn't this good news for the markets? Why is it still falling?

Don’t panic. This wave is actually a classic "expectation fulfillment" pattern—before the news is announced, the market has already reacted. When the rate cut actually happens, some traders take profits. But if you zoom out and look from the perspective of liquidity and cycles, the bull market’s footsteps are already very close.

**Powell’s speech hid a key signal**

The rate cut itself wasn’t surprising. What’s really noteworthy is what Powell mentioned—that in the coming months, the scale of bond purchases might stay high. In other words: short-term funding conditions won’t tighten, and liquidity will remain ample.

Why do this? Just look at the US’s financial ledger. Now, US debt has piled up to 37 trillion dollars. The interest alone costs over 600 billion a year, while government revenue is just over 500 billion. This doesn’t add up— the only solution is "borrowing new debt to pay old debt," cycling endlessly. In this situation, rate cuts aren’t an option—they’re a necessity.

**Surface-level "independence" versus actual tacit cooperation**

You might have noticed that Trump has been calling for rate cuts, while Powell repeatedly emphasizes the Federal Reserve’s independence. It may seem like a tug-of-war, but essentially, it’s more of a show.

If the Fed really obeyed the government completely, the credibility of the dollar assets would collapse quickly—who would still dare to buy US debt? So they must act like they’re independent. Maintaining a high level of bond purchases is part of this façade, continuing to pour money into the market.

At this pace, at least until the first half of 2026, the entire financial market will remain in an environment of abundant liquidity. For BTC, this is the real fundamental support. Short-term fluctuations are just noise; the big trend is already clear.