Tonight at 4:30 Beijing time, a key figure will be announced—the Federal Reserve's liquidity data. This could become the watershed that determines the recent market direction.

First, the conclusion: if the data exceeds $6.53 trillion, the market's "water level" surpasses expectations, and altcoins are likely to take off on the trend. In an environment with ample funds, risk assets often benefit first.

But if the data stays around $6.50 trillion, it's a different scenario—mild liquidity release means the market needs time to digest, and there may be repeated tug-of-war at high levels in the short term.

To put it more straightforwardly: when there's more water, fish naturally become active; when the water level is steady, patience is needed for the wind to come. Especially in the current interest rate cut cycle, the marginal change of this figure is more noteworthy than before.

What do you think? Wait for surprises or prepare for volatility?