#数字资产生态回暖 Let’s talk about the recent market trend—rebound or reversal?

First, look at the big picture. $BTC is currently stuck at 90,237, having broken below the key moving averages of 7, 25, and 99 days, with a clear bearish alignment. The 99-day moving average is still at 101,865, and the current price is quite far from that, indicating that medium- to long-term pressure is still downward.

Regarding support and resistance. The 24-hour low of 89,389.63 is a crucial support level; breaking below this might lead to further decline. On the upside, recent resistance is at 90,969 (7-day moving average), and higher up is 92,198 (25-day moving average).

How about volume and indicators? Recently, there has been a clear sign of volume decreasing during the decline. The MACD is interesting—DIF and DEA are both negative, but the histogram (756.63) is positive and has formed a golden cross. This might suggest a short-term technical rebound or a pause in the decline, but whether it can be sustained remains to be seen.

Cycle data looks less optimistic. Today’s drop is 1.99%, over 7 days it’s down 2.35%, over 30 days by 14.11%, and over 90 days even by 20.97%. The downward pressure in the medium to short term still exists, and no clear reversal signals have appeared yet.

Looking ahead. In the short term (1-7 days), if $BTC can hold the support at 89,389, there may be a rebound testing the resistance zone around the moving averages of 91,000 to 92,200. If support is broken, the next target is in the 85,800 to 82,600 range (previous lows). In the medium term (1-4 weeks), only a break above 101,865 can truly reverse the downtrend; otherwise, further decline might continue, testing 80,000 to 82,000.

My personal view is that this is a rebound attempt within a downtrend; don’t blindly chase long positions. Focus on whether the volume can increase during the rebound and if the MACD can break above zero. I remain bearish on BTC’s future movements.