#美联储降息 The moment when good news is realized is just the beginning of cutting leeks. Powell's interest rate cut yesterday was as scheduled, and he also signaled a super dovish stance. The market then staged a classic drama: promising employment risks, hinting at continued easing, yet $BTC and $ETH couldn't keep rising. BTC surged then fell back; ETH plummeted from a high of $3447. Risk assets all jumped together in a synchronized dive.

This time, Powell abandoned ambiguous forward guidance and changed his tune to say that from now on, data will be the primary basis—"data dependence mode" is now activated. The initial jobless claims data to be released tonight at 21:30 US time expects 220,000 claims, marking the first battle of the new era. Everyone is waiting for this number because it will determine who holds the narrative for the entire upcoming month.

Market divergence is now outrageously wide:

If initial claims come in at 220,000 or lower—especially significantly below expectations—that indicates the employment market isn’t as fragile as imagined. Powell’s dovish arguments will no longer hold water, the door to rate cuts will close tight, and "tightening trades" will re-emerge, causing risk assets to be hammered even harder.

Conversely, if initial claims exceed 220,000—especially well above expectations—that signals worsening employment is a done deal, providing ammunition for the Fed to continue large rate cuts. Risk assets might rebound—how much they rebound depends on whether this data exceeds expectations.

Honestly, the current market has been overextended almost to the limit. From a technical perspective, the real squeeze play has just begun. Any rebound caused by weak employment data could be a golden opportunity for bears to add positions, and also the last chance for bulls to slip away.

Tonight’s 21:30 initial claims figure will determine whether the "recession trade" fully launches or the "tightening trade" regains control. For the crypto market, this data tonight could influence the trend for at least a month.