#数字资产生态回暖 Cryptocurrency Market Analysis Notes $BTC 2025-12-11 11:12

Recent disagreements have become fewer, and the upcoming rhythm has actually become clear.

From the chart, this downward movement is a combined corrective wave— a standard triple three-wave structure (WXYXZ). The blue wave segment has likely already completed, and will evolve into a higher-level double three-wave. Currently, the blue line is just the W wave, and it will also include X and Y waves later.

It can also be viewed from a different wave count perspective. If Wave A is interpreted as a less typical leading wedge pattern, then Wave B is likely a zigzag correction (single, double, or triple). However, this logic requires Wave C to be a more aggressive five-wave impulsive wave than Wave A. The problem is that, given the current macro environment, it’s difficult to generate a five-wave impulsive move of that magnitude. The more probable scenario remains a combined corrective pattern. So, the safer approach is to treat it as a correction first, and if Wave C does unexpectedly produce a five-wave impulsive move, it’s not too late to revise the judgment then.

The key issue is: as long as this sub-X wave (red line) does not turn into a diffusion platform correction wave, it’s unlikely to make a new low. Honestly, examples of diffusion platform patterns at this level are extremely rare. After studying many cases, I’ve never actually seen one. So, the probability of a new low can be directly ignored.

These are my daily notes on wave theory and Gann theory research. Core wave patterns are shared daily with a few friends, including detailed timing points, specific movement trajectories, and risk alerts, all pinned in the top post.

—Wave Theory and Gann Theory Academic Exchange Notes
Purely theoretical discussion, not to be used for actual trading decisions.