#美联储降息 $BTC Is the expectation of breaking $100,000 still reliable? Recently, I've heard many analyses predicting Bitcoin will surge to 103,500–112,500 within a month. The chart shows neatly aligned patterns like the guiding wedge, wave 4, and 0.382 support. It looks fine, and the logic seems sound. But that’s precisely where the problem lies.

When all voices in the market point in the same direction, and the technical patterns are as clear as a textbook, it’s time to be extra vigilant. Historically, every peak reached through consensus has often been the eve of a reversal.

What’s the current situation? The market is doing psychological groundwork. First, it presents you with a seemingly foolproof technical structure, then offers an enticing target price, prompting retail investors to collectively go bullish, expectantly wait, and anxiously anticipate that moment. And then what? Usually, it’s a fierce shakeout—sharp swings, volatile movements, bulls getting slapped in the face, and bears not letting up either.

The most cunning part is in this sentence: "The process may be very convoluted." What does convoluted mean? It means you might be right about the direction but still get shaken out, unable to hold your position. You think a pullback is a buying opportunity, but the market makers are just trying to scare your chips out.

A few bottom lines for traders:

The technical framework can serve as a reference, but support levels are not gospel. $100,000 is not the end; the market has made no promises.

Support levels can be observed, but don’t self-hypnotize into thinking the bottom is in before confirmation. Zones like 89,000–90,000 need time for validation.

Most importantly, manage your emotions. Stay alert when everyone is optimistic; consider bottom-fishing only when everyone is hopeless. This isn’t some advanced skill; it’s the basic survival skill in the crypto world.

The market’s steps are always based on your fear and greed. What can truly hurt you isn’t how prices move, but your unwavering belief in some "consensus."