On December 11, 2025, BTC surged then pulled back after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates. Technical indicators show significant bullish and bearish divergences, and the short-term is at a critical decision point. Below is a detailed analysis by Zhenghe Capital:

1. Price and Indicator Performance: On that day, BTC reached a intraday high of around $94,450, then quickly retreated, falling to around $91,400 in the morning. By around 3 PM, the price fluctuated near $90,200, with a 24-hour decline of approximately 2.5%. On the indicators side, the daily chart shows two consecutive long upper shadow candles, indicating strong selling pressure above. The 4-hour chart shows the price moving between two moving averages, in a neutral state; MACD shows weakening green momentum bars and a fast and slow line about to form a death cross. The 1-hour chart has already formed a death cross, suggesting a high probability of further downside pressure within the day. Meanwhile, RSI is retreating from the overbought zone, indicating increased short-term correction needs.

2. Key Support and Resistance Levels: Resistance is focused on the $93,000 - $94,500 range, which is both the recent upper boundary of consolidation and near the upper Bollinger Band on the daily chart, with previous attempts to break above failing. Support levels initially are around $91,000 - $91,500; if broken, the next key support is $90,000. The core support zone is at $88,000 - $89,000, where multiple supports such as previous lows converge, serving as an important defense line for bulls.

3. Bullish and Bearish Pattern and Trend Divergences: The bearish side believes the daily chart could form a “bear flag” continuation pattern. If the daily closing price effectively breaks below the lower boundary of the flag at $90,000, the theoretical downside target could be around $67,000. The bullish side points out a potential reversal pattern in the weekly chart called “three-candle decline.” If the weekly closes above $94,000 - $96,000, a new rally could begin. Moreover, holding the $88,000 - $89,000 support zone increases the likelihood of testing higher targets.