2025-12-11 02:21:46

Official statements and actual market expectations, how big can the gap be?

The Federal Reserve hints that there may be a rate cut once next year. Sounds quite conservative. But on-chain prediction market Polymarket users are voting with real money: the probability of two or more cuts skyrockets to 81%, and there’s a 60% chance of three or more.

This is interesting—on one side, official cautious statements; on the other, the market’s genuine expectations reflected through financial bets. Who should we believe?

Don’t just focus on press releases. Look at the funding flows and consider what those willing to bet real money on decentralized prediction platforms think. The market is always more honest than words.

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ProtocolRebel

· 6h ago

The Federal Reserve's words are all talk; the funds will vote. 81% of people are betting on multiple rate cuts—that's the real story. --- Official statements are always tough, but the wallet is honest. The data from polymarket is intense; the market simply doesn't believe their narrative. --- A single rate cut? Come on, the truly wealthy are placing big bets on polymarket—that's the real expectation, okay? --- On-chain prediction market users speak with their money, which is much more convincing than the Federal Reserve's press releases. The market never lies. --- A 60% chance of more than three rate cuts? If that's true, the stablecoins in hand should be exchanged quickly. --- Official statements are one thing, actions are another. I'm used to it; watching the capital flow is more reliable. That's the true voice of the market. --- With an 81% probability on polymarket, I trust this more than any statement from the Federal Reserve. Money doesn't lie.

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GateUser-bd883c58

· 10h ago

The Federal Reserve is starting to spin stories again, but Polymarket is the real deal—81% versus 1%, that gap is huge. People always love to trust official sources, but on-chain data tends to slap them hard in the face. The expectation of rate cuts is so heated, indicating everyone is betting that Powell will compromise; money doesn't lie. This is probably the value of Web3—decentralized prediction markets are much more honest than CNN. Tracking capital flows is really the key to breaking the deadlock; don't be led by the media's rhythm.

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WhaleWatcher

· 12-11 02:43

The Federal Reserve is playing word games again, those folks at polymarket really dare to go all-in Speaking of which, money doesn't lie; the probability of two rate cuts is so high that next year might really get serious The official always says it last The human capital market never lies, that's for sure The Fed is stubborn, but on-chain data has long been written on the chain; no one can win or lose based on bets Let's just see what the funds choose, anyway, it's very common for officials to say one thing and do another

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PessimisticLayer

· 12-11 02:42

The Federal Reserve is lying again, and the folks at polymarket are really daring to bet. An 81% chance of two rate cuts? I feel like it should be even higher... On-chain data never lies; the official statements are just daily pie-in-the-sky promises. The real voice is in the funds, not in the speeches. With such high expectations for rate cuts, the indexes are bound to soar afterwards. Once the officials speak, the market reveals its true colors—so heartbreaking, haha. The Federal Reserve is backing down; the wallets of polymarket are the true reflection of opinions. Let's wait and see the play next year where the Federal Reserve is manipulated in reverse by the market.

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HalfBuddhaMoney

· 12-11 02:38

The Federal Reserve's so-called expertise, saying one rate cut, but the market bets on two hikes. Real money doesn't lie; there's an 81% probability betting on more than two, and this gap is incredible.

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OptionWhisperer

· 12-11 02:30

How many years has the Fed been playing this trick? Saying one thing and doing another is just routine operation... That 81% on Polymarket is much more reliable than official statements; real money doesn't lie. Interest rate cuts more than three times? Help me up, I can still go all in. Conservative with words but loose with actions, and this time is no exception... Market pricing always leads, press releases are just a cover-up. Funds flow is a hundred times more honest than press conferences. Starting to bet on the Fed again, this familiar routine... If the Fed tries to deceive retail investors, on-chain data will expose it.

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ser_we_are_ngmi

· 12-11 02:29

The Federal Reserve talks one way but does another—after so many years of this routine, does anyone still believe it? The 81% on Polymarket is the real deal; money doesn't lie.

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