At 3 a.m., the Federal Reserve implemented the 25 basis point rate cut. I watched the trend of a major mainstream coin for a long time—first a violent surge, then a direct pullback, a classic "profit-taking" script.

Upon waking up in the morning and glancing at the market, the price rebounded to around $900. I impulsively opened a long position, but within less than ten minutes, I was hit with a stop loss. This prompted me to review the logical chain of today.

First, let's talk about the V-shaped reversal wave at 3 a.m. Big funds voted with their feet—the rate cut landing had already cleared out the funds that needed to leave, leaving only the wait-and-see crowd. The candlestick pattern was very honest: no one was willing to buy at this level.

Next is the issue during the daytime session. Wall Street was still sleeping, and Asian markets already had low liquidity. For a big move to happen, unless the futures positions had enough ammunition to cause a spike and harvest profit, it wouldn't happen. I checked the liquidation heatmap—funds above $900 and below $870 weren't substantial enough to trigger large-scale liquidations on either side.

Therefore, during this daytime window, it's mainly retail traders and quantitative bots testing each other. My judgment is that the probability of sideways or downward correction is higher.

If I were trading futures, I would watch the $900 resistance level. When the price approaches this level, consider taking a light short position with a target near $870—there's a clear support step on the 4-hour chart, which allows for partial profit-taking or even reversing to go long. As for how the market will move after the US stock market opens at night, it depends on the attitude of those funds.

This isn't a call to action, just a trading journal for myself. I want to compile these "scenarios-hypotheses-verification" processes into a template library so I can quickly reference them when similar market conditions occur.

After all, the market won't replicate history exactly, but certain rhythms will feel familiar.