Will they cut rates in 2026? The Federal Reserve's internal disagreement is quite significant.

The latest dot plot data is out, and the attitudes of 19 decision-makers are quite divided: 7 believe there is no need to cut at all, and they prefer to hold steady; 4 lean towards a 25 basis point cut as a gesture; another 4 think a 50 basis point cut is necessary; 2 are more aggressive, advocating for a 75 basis point cut; and one even calls for a 100 basis point cut, with the most extreme suggesting a 150 basis point reduction.

Adding it up, the median falls at 25 basis points—which sounds quite conservative. But this internal division is more worth pondering than the specific numbers. After all, each shift in monetary policy directly affects capital flows, and the crypto market naturally cannot escape the chain reaction.