The signals released by the Federal Reserve in this meeting are far more complex than they appear on the surface.

Let's start with the key points: Powell explicitly mentioned that inflation data disclosures are decreasing and the risk is tilted to the upside. Translated, this means—don't expect the central bank to flood the market with liquidity due to short-term economic fluctuations; future policies will be more cautious. The market's previous fantasy of "continuous large-scale easing" can basically be put aside now.

Another critical detail is that the reserve balance has already fallen to a sufficient level. This bond purchase operation is purely a technical adjustment and not an increase in quantitative easing. In simple terms, the liquidity boost is very limited; don't overthink it.

What does this mean for BTC? I think it should be viewed from several angles.

**In the short term, selling pressure will definitely intensify.**
The inflation warning and the non-substantive easing policy combo will cause funds that entered expecting rate cuts to quickly withdraw. A typical "buy the rumor, sell the fact" situation. During the early hours, BTC is likely to spike and then fall back or even open lower, with resistance levels becoming harder to break.

**In the medium term, risk appetite continues to cool down.**
The Fed’s cautious stance on inflation will lead the market to form a consensus—that the pace of rate cuts in 2026 will be much slower than expected. This directly suppresses the long-term liquidity expectations for the crypto market. As a risk asset, BTC’s allocation willingness will continue to decline, and the subsequent oscillation center may gradually shift downward rather than stay high and sideways.

**Regarding volatility, beware of sudden spikes.**
Liquidity was already low during the early hours, and combined with the mixed signals of "hawkish inflation policies + neutral reserve management," BTC price is prone to quick dips followed by small rebounds. Although technical reserve management operations are not fundamentally bearish, market expectations for "policy support" will fall short, and buy-side support during corrections will be much weaker, increasing the risk of key support levels breaking.

**On the institutional side, funds will be more cautious.**
Inflation risks and policy divergences will make institutions more cautious about BTC holdings—they won't significantly increase their positions. Market trading is dominated by retail and short-term funds, lacking trend-driven major capital inflows, making it difficult to see large-scale trend movements in the near term.

To summarize: The hawkish signals from this Fed meeting are more bearish for BTC. Short-term selling pressure, medium-term liquidity suppression, increased volatility, and institutional caution—these combined factors suggest the upcoming market won't be very comfortable. Practice good risk management and avoid chasing highs easily.