The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in the early morning of December 11th, a rate cut is basically a done deal.

But the point isn't whether they will cut or not this time—it's that the big show of rate cuts has only just reached the halfway point, and it's far from over.

Many people are worried that "good news is exhausted and becomes bad news," but you need to understand one thing: as long as the rate cut cycle isn't over, this logic doesn't hold. It's like a movie still in the climax; if you keep guessing the ending will be a tragedy, aren't you just overthinking? The real thing to watch out for is the moment when the rate cut stops entirely—that will be the plot twist.

This time, there's something different—the balance sheet reduction has already stopped.

What does that mean? Previously, they were both cutting rates and shrinking the balance sheet; now, they are cutting rates while not shrinking the balance sheet, which is a double positive for the market. Even more exciting, tonight's meeting might directly announce an expansion of the balance sheet—that's like opening the floodgates. This move is essentially sending two big red envelopes to the market.

So at this stage, there's no need to worry prematurely. The rate cut cycle is still ongoing, liquidity will only become more relaxed, and for the entire financial market, this is definitely a positive. Don't be swayed by those "good news landing" theories; the timing isn't right yet—don't scare yourself unnecessarily.