#ETH12月行情预测

Forecasting tomorrow's ETH position at 3400～3598
Tonight (early December 11), the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is scheduled as expected.
A rate cut is highly likely.
Moreover, this rate cut does not signify the end; it is just one part of the rate cut cycle.
In other words, after this rate cut, the rate cut cycle will not end; there will be more cuts to come.
Understanding this is very important, as the beginning and end are signs of a trend change.
It's like the late winter; no matter how much the temperature drops, it can't last long because spring is coming.
In early spring, no matter how much it cools, it won't drop much because summer is after spring.
Therefore, once entering a rate cut cycle, the key is to watch when the rate cuts will end completely, as this will mark a shift in the entire market cycle.
Currently, there is nothing to worry about, as we are still within the rate cut cycle, not at the end.
Therefore, the current rate cut is definitely good news for the entire financial market and will not be, as many say, “good news is bad news.”
On the other hand, this rate cut is different from previous ones: it is a rate cut after stopping balance sheet reduction.
Stopping balance sheet reduction means no longer draining liquidity from the market, and cutting rates at the same time is like adding icing on the cake.
Tonight's meeting may also announce an expansion of the balance sheet, meaning injecting liquidity into the market—adding two flowers on top of the cake.

The market has also signaled this, forming a double bottom and breaking through the neckline with volume.
Highs and lows are gradually rising.
The bears are gradually reducing volume, and the bulls are gradually increasing volume.
These are signs that the bullish force is strengthening. Combined with news and policy factors, it indicates that the bulls have started a northern expedition.
External analysts who previously said 3200 wouldn't break are now seeing a breakthrough, and they will look for new resistance levels, then say “If it can't go higher here, it will go down.”
Those retail investors who don't understand technical analysis and lack discernment will, under such analysis, keep waiting for a big drop, but in reality, the price keeps reaching new highs.
This highlights the importance of my key point—“trend judgment.”
If you can't tell whether a downward trend has ended, you'll be stuck in the previous decline. When it rises, you might think it's just a rebound; when it dips slightly, you believe “it's going to crash.”
As a result, you'll just watch the market keep rising, keep hitting your own thigh, and keep waiting, always feeling that you didn't buy at the previous level, so it's too late now.
Once a real big rally happens, a new problem arises: you can't tell if the upward trend has ended.
Seeing a dip, you think it’s enough to buy, keep adding positions, but then prices keep breaking new lows, trapping you deeper.
Therefore, many people will continue to be unable to interpret the market, waiting and waiting—hoping for a drop from 2600 to 2000, now that it’s risen to 3300, waiting for it to fall back to 3000 or 2600.
They will keep missing opportunities during this waiting process.
The worst are the shorts—they will see some volatility after a rally and short, but as the market continues rising, they keep shorting, and their positions keep getting liquidated.
The upcoming market is critical; if you can't truly identify the trend and find appropriate entry and exit points, you'll always just be a passerby.
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