The drama of rate cuts begins at 3 a.m., with Powell's speech at 3:30 p.m. setting the tone! Don't think that rate cuts mean celebration; the probability of a rebound after good news is maximized, and this adjustment will take at least a week or two. It’s not necessarily that the market will fall immediately after a rate cut, but historical data shows that one week after a rate cut, the crypto market has a high probability of a 10% correction. Traders should stay calm and wait for the right opportunity!

The NASDAQ-related stocks in the US stock market are rising, but that doesn't mean the crypto market will follow suit! The correlation between Bitcoin and the NASDAQ is rising to 0.52 in 2025. It may seem like they are moving in sync, but there are hidden risks of diversification—institutions' funds might pull out of the crypto space at any time and flow back into hot sectors like AI. Last week's "stocks rising, coins falling" divergence is the best warning!

Rate cuts are not a guaranteed bullish signal; hawkish tactics require extra caution
There are rumors in the market that Fed rate cuts are good news? Don’t panic! Data shows that a 25 basis point rate cut has been fully priced in, and the real direction is set by policy guidance. Once the "hawkish rate cut" approach is implemented—rate cuts accompanied by warnings of inflation risks—capital will quickly flow into government bonds, and liquidity in the crypto market will be instantly drained. The 1011 event—190 billion liquidation disaster—could easily replay!

Year-end trend is predictable; two possible outcomes are locked in early
Short-term (within December): Range-bound between 83,000 and 95,000, with a breakout leading to a buy-up!
Don’t be fooled by the 94,500 high! Current liquidity exhaustion combined with year-end capital withdrawal means Bitcoin is unable to hold above 95,000. Chasing highs now is no different from chasing the 126,000 peak in October! Divergences in cross-central bank policies are intensifying, and before the Fed’s decision is announced, market volatility will only escalate!

Mid to long-term (2026): If it doesn’t break 130,000, it will fall below 75,000!
The core judgment is clear: if the Fed completes 2-3 rate cuts in 2026 and institutional ETF inflows continue, Bitcoin will break through 130,000 mid-next year; if rate cuts fall short of expectations, 75,000 will be the critical line—breaking below that will trigger a new Bitcoin winter! Remember: what we are seeing now is not a bull market start but a bottoming process. Patience is a hundred times more important than leverage!

Final warning: those who survive are the ones who understand reverence
The core of making money in crypto is not chasing gains or panic selling, but precise risk prediction. Last year, early warnings of FTX’s collapse were issued; this year, two major crashes in April and October were caught, thanks to extreme sensitivity to macro data and market structure.