Tonight's meeting has long been scripted — a 25 basis point rate cut, it's a done deal.

Let's see what the market is saying: 96% of people on Polymarket are betting on a rate cut, and the CME probabilities are also at 87.6%. Announcing the results at 3 a.m.? No surprises there.

But what’s truly interesting is what will happen after the rate cut.

This meeting is definitely not just a procedural formality. It’s more like an open rehearsal for a political game, and it could even set the tone for the entire monetary policy next year. Two questions are most critical:

**Will money be unleashed?**

Everyone is watching one thing — after stopping balance sheet reduction, will they really start expanding the balance sheet? Specifically, starting from January, buying $45 billion worth of short-term government bonds each month to inject liquidity into the market. This move will directly determine whether the funds loosen or tighten later.

**How chaotic is the internal situation?**

This voting process might set a record. Out of 12 voting members, five have already expressed clear opposition or hesitation about continuing to ease. Such a level of division hasn't been seen since 2019. The contest between current Chair Powell and the shadow chair Haskett will directly influence the next steps.

**How will the market react?**

If post-meeting statements lean hawkish (emphasizing that inflation isn’t under control yet and there’s no rush to ease), volatility will likely be subdued.

But if they speak more softly (mentioning economic risks and hinting at providing liquidity support), risk assets — including cryptocurrencies — will benefit directly.

In short, tonight isn’t just about wrapping up 2025; it’s an excellent opportunity to observe what the Fed will do under external pressures, and to glimpse the policy direction for next year. Get ready for some volatility.