#美联储联邦公开市场委员会决议 At 3 a.m. the announcement will be made—there's little doubt that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points.

Look at these data points: prediction platforms show a 96% chance of a rate cut, and the CME FedWatch Tool indicates 87.6%. The market has already voted with real money, so the rate decision itself is not much of a surprise.

What truly matters is what they say afterward. This is not simply about a rate cut; it’s a test of how much political pressure the Federal Reserve can withstand and how it will directly impact the entire landscape in 2026. Two key questions to watch:

**Will liquidity truly be loosened?**

This is what the market is waiting for—the question is, after stopping the balance sheet reduction, will the Fed turn around and start easing? Specifically, starting from January next year, will they dare to say they will buy $45 billion worth of short-term Treasury bills each month? This decision will determine whether liquidity is tight or loose. For the crypto market, this signal is crucial.

**How divided is the Federal Reserve internally?**

Among the 12 voting members of the FOMC, five are now opposed or skeptical of further easing. Such a level of disagreement hasn’t been seen since 2019, indicating the Fed is becoming increasingly politicized. The power struggle between the current chair and the shadow chair will decide the path forward.

**What impact does this have on us?**

If the stance leans hawkish (emphasizing inflation risks and denying easing prospects), markets will experience big swings.

If dovish signals are released (highlighting economic risks and implying liquidity support), risk assets like cryptocurrencies will take off.

In short, tonight is not only the conclusion of 2025 policy but also a critical moment to see how the Fed will choose under pressure and which direction it will take in 2026. Be prepared, volatility is coming.