At 03:30 a.m. tonight, Fed Chairman Powell is going to speak. This speech is not going through the motions, but a key node that directly affects the thickness of your wallet.

**Don't be fooled by the word "interest rate cut"**

The market is shouting that interest rate cuts are good? Wake up. A 25 basis point rate cut has long been priced in, and the real core is whether it will announce "$45 billion in Treasury bonds per month". This is called expanding the table, to put it bluntly, it is printing money and smashing it into the market. Interest rate cuts are only interest rate adjustments, and table expansion is a direct release of water.

Even more dangerous are internal signals: 5 of the 12 voting members oppose interest rate cuts. Since 1990, this split has occurred only nine times. What do you mean? The policy path in 2026 may be capricious, and even if the water is released tonight, it may only be a political compromise, not sincere.

What are big funds most afraid of? Uncertain. So don't expect them to chase the rise mindlessly, it is a routine operation to close or even backhand shorting when they see good. What the currency circle wants is not a pie, but a real liquidity injection.

**Technical: The golden cross may not be a good thing**

On the four-hour chart, the white and yellow line handed over a golden cross above the 0 axis, which looked beautiful. But today's overall trend is down - this is called "rebound repair golden cross in decline", and the credibility should be discounted by 70%.

The upper two hurdles:
- **0.151**: Short-term long-short watershed, multiple failures
- **0.1567**: The previous high position, yesterday's chasing people are trapped here, and the selling pressure is huge

The lower support level remains to be seen (the original text is not provided in full).

To sum up: tonight's volatility may be great, but the direction may not be as you want. Policy easing does not mean that the market buys it, and technical indicators can also be traps. Don't rush to stud, first see if there are crocodiles in the water.