Eve of the Fed's decision: Bitcoin vs. Ethereum and the Precision Trading framework

When Bitcoin launched its 17th tentative attack and defense at the $94,000 mark, and Ethereum built a micro fortification at $3,380, the entire crypto market is entering a typical "volatility compression-directional selection" critical state. This is not only a key technical node, but also a double verification window for macro liquidity expectations and micro market structure. As an observer who has been tracking the market for eight years, this article will systematically deconstruct the current market landscape and provide professional traders with a probabilistic Precision Trading framework.

1. Market review: Two accurately captured air duels last night

Yesterday, the market presented a textbook structure of "false breakthrough - real fallback". The Liangqiu team accurately grasped two high-altitude layout opportunities:

First order strategy: When Bitcoin hits $92,000 and Ethereum hits $3,180, predict the exhaustion of momentum through the breakout, lay out short orders, and trigger stop loss at $92,000 and $3,180. Although this order is lost, it verifies the "price action strength at key resistance levels" and provides calibration data for subsequent layouts.

Secondary order strategy: Re-enter the market around $94,000 and $3,340 in the morning, cover the short position at $3,380, and the market rises and falls back to $91,900 and $3,280 as scheduled, capturing the swing space of $2,100 and $100. The core of this order success is to "identify the volume and energy divergence of the second peak" - the price reached a new high but the volume shrank to 1.2 times the average, the MACD histogram contracted, and KDJ entered the overbought zone (>). 85）。

This iterative model of "first order calibration, second order heavy position" reflects the dynamic adaptability of professional traders to the market. On the eve of the Fed's decision, volatility premium and directional uncertainty form a double squeeze, and only through the strategy of small position testing + large position confirmation can a balance between risk control and return capture be achieved.

2. In-depth deconstruction of the technical side: hidden worries and opportunities under the long position

Bitcoin: The game of moving average golden cross and KDJ divergence

Long signals:

• Moving average system: The price is running above the MA60 (about $89,500) and MA120 (about $88,200), and the MA60 is above the MA120 to form a golden cross, forming a bullish resonance with the golden cross above the MACD zero axis. This is the classic structure of the medium-term trend to the upside

• Price position: Standing firmly above $91,500, this price level has been the center of the small platform since December 5, with strong support attributes

Hidden worry signals:

• KDJ indicator: The current K value (78) and D value (72) are in the overbought zone, and there is a prototype of top divergence - the price is at a new high but KDJ has not synchronized the new high. This suggests that short-term bull momentum is exhausted, and if the decision falls short of expectations, it may trigger a rapid pullback

• Volume: The trading volume at the high of $94,555 is only $5.4 billion, which is 1.5 times less than the average, and the volume-price divergence suggests that the validity of the breakout needs to be verified

Key conclusion: The technical side presents a combination of "strong trend + weak momentum", and the direction selection is completely dependent on the marginal catalysis of the Fed. Before the resolution was announced, any heavy position was tantamount to gambling.

Ethereum: An independent market driven by ecological recovery

Long signals:

• Moving Average Alignment: MA60 (approximately $3,150) and MA120 (approximately $3,080) are in a bullish position, and the price is firmly above $3,250, which is the value center after the "Fusaka upgrade"

• Ecological driven: After L2 fees fell by 60%, Arbitrum's daily active addresses increased by 41%, directly pushing up the on-chain burn volume to an average of 1,850 ETH per day, strengthening the deflationary narrative

Hidden worry signals:

• Resistance Dense Zone: The $3,400-$3,450 range is the third high since September, with more than $12 billion in lockdowns and more than $22 billion in trading volume to break through

• Funding Rate: The current funding rate is +0.015%, indicating that the bulls are overcrowded, and if the decision is hawkish, it may trigger a kill of more than a bull

Key conclusion: ETH has stronger fundamental drives than BTC, but the technical side also faces an iron wall of $3,400. Whether or not to break through depends on the dual catalysis of "Fed dovish signal + ETF expectations heating up".

3. Key price offensive and defensive system: three-dimensional mapping of resistance and support

Bitcoin: Three layers of resistance and three layers of support

Resistance Levels:

1. First resistance: $94,000-$94,500: The upper edge of the current consolidation platform requires a trading volume of ≥ $7 billion

2. Second resistance: $95,000: The integer psychological level is also the starting point of the flash crash on December 1, and the trap is dense

3. Third resistance: $96,000-98,000: The historical high area in December 2021, a strong resistance band, and a breakthrough requires a qualitative change in fundamentals

Support Levels:

1. Core support: $91,000-$91,500: The intersection of MA60 and MA20, the lifeline of long and short, below which the trend weakens

2. Important support: $90,000: integer level and psychological defense line, institutions increase their positions in the cost zone

3. Ultimate support: $88,500-$89,200: The lower edge of the platform on December 5, if it falls, the medium-term adjustment will start

Ethereum: Double layer resistance and double layer support

Resistance Levels:

1. First resistance: $3,400-$3,450: The first fortress that bulls must overcome as the descending trendline has been suppressed since September

2. Second resistance: $3,500-$3,550: The rally high in August, a breakout opens up the $4,000 space

Support Levels:

1. Core support: US$3200-3250: MA60 and MA120 intersection, ecological value bottom

2. Important support: $3,150: The integer mark and psychological support, the expected anchor level of spot ETFs

4. Precision Trading framework: High win rate operation plan

Plan A: On the eve of the resolution (20:00 on December 10 - 03:00 on December 11)

Core principles: reduce positions, control risks, and wait for signals

• Positions: 40% of the total position≤s, of which 70% are allocated to BTC/ETH spot and 30% are held in USDT

• Operation: place a long BTC order at $91,500-92,000, and set the stop loss below $91,000; Place a long ETH order at $3270-3290, and set the stop loss below $3250

• Logic: These are the last line of defense for bulls before the decision, and if they are broken, it means that the market has priced in a hawkish outcome and should give up going long

Option B: At the time of resolution (03:00-04:00 on December 11)

Core principles: do not chase orders, do not guess the direction, and wait for the market to digest

• Action: Pause all manual trading and observe the immediate market reaction to the decision

• Key Signals:

• If BTC holds steady at $94,500 within 1 hour with a trading volume > $7 billion, you can chase a 20% position with a target of $96,000

• If BTC falls below $91,500 with a volume > $6 billion, you can short 15% of your position with a target of $90,000 (but with a strict stop loss of $92,500)

• Risk control: Volatility may exceed 80% at this stage, and any leverage is dangerous

Option C: After the resolution (after 04:00 on December 11)

Core principles: follow the trend, confirm the position, and take profit when moving

• Dovish scenario: After chasing the position, set the take profit level to the cost price +3% to ensure the safety of the principal

• Hawkish scenario: After stop-loss, wait for the second confirmation of $90,500 (BTC)/$3,150 (ETH) before considering whether to go long backhand

5. Core risk warning and trading discipline

1. Policy risks: There is a possibility of a "hawkish rate cut" in the Fed's decision (rate cut but with strong wording), which will lead to a flash crash of "all the profits"

2. Liquidity risk: Shortened trading hours during holidays may cause market makers to narrow quotes or widen spreads, increasing slippage costs

3. Emotional risk: Social media will be filled with noise before and after the resolution, blocking all KOL views, and only focusing on on-chain data and official information

4. Discipline: A single loss must not exceed 2% of the total account, a single loss must not exceed 5%, and if the limit is exceeded, the trading must be stopped for 24 hours

6. Conclusion: Finding certainty in uncertainty

Tonight's FOMC decision is not a gamble, but a stress test of the trading system. Your position management, risk control discipline, and emotional control ability will be tested in the next 12 hours.

Remember what Liang Qiu said: analysis and strategy are for reference only, please bear your own risk. The review and publication of articles is not timely, and the details are subject to real-time. In the crypto market, only by surviving can we talk about returns, and risk control always comes first.

Tonight's FOMC decision, what is your position and strategy?

A. Full position before the resolution, bet on dovish

B. Short position wait-and-see, waiting for the direction to be clear

C. Use options strategies and go long on volatility

D. Only hold spot and ignore short-term fluctuations

Type your choice in the comment section and explain the reasons. The comment with the highest likes will get an in-depth review and operation plan before tomorrow's market!

Forward this article to let more comrades-in-arms establish a sense of risk control and no longer blindly gamble.

Follow @currency circle nuggets to get high-win rate strategies and risk warnings every day to help you move forward steadily in the turbulent waves of the crypto market! #比特币行情 #以太坊分析 #美联储决议 #风险管理 #PrecisionTrading

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