At this position (BTC fluctuates at a high weekly level), tonight's Fed decision is the key that will determine the life and death of the market in the next three months.

1. Resolution scenario deduction and core logic

Dovish Exceed Expectations (A) Probability: 20%
Trigger conditions: The dot plot clearly shows that there will be more than 3 rate cuts in 2024 (e.g., to 4), and Powell acknowledged at the press conference that inflation progress is "solid", downplaying recent data disturbances.
Market reaction: The U.S. dollar index dived and U.S. Treasury yields plummeted. The crypto market will ignite instantly, and BTC is expected to quickly challenge the previous high (100,000~105,000 psychological mark). Altcoins (especially the Ethereum ecosystem, AI, DePIN and other narrative sectors) will usher in a rotation surge.
Experience: The probability of this situation is not high in the context of core inflation still sticky and economic data is not weak in the near future. The Fed is more "stable" than "aggressive" in an election year, and giving the market excessive dovish expectations is tantamount to binding its own hands. Be wary of "buying expectations, selling facts", even if you are dovish, you may take profits quickly after rising.

Neutral Equilibrium (B) Probability: 60%
Trigger conditions: The dot plot maintains the forecast of three rate cuts in 2024, and the statement deletes optimistic language such as "inflation has eased" and changes it to "more evidence is still needed". Powell's speech "played Tai Chi" - not only acknowledging progress, but also emphasizing patience, and not giving a clear timing for interest rate cuts.
Market reaction: Initial volatility intensifies, up and down. Eventually, it will fall into a high wide range (e.g., BTC in the range of 88,000~96,000). The market needs time to digest and await the follow-up inflation/employment data. Funds will rotate rapidly, and the sustainability of the sector is poor.
Experience: This is the most likely path for the Fed to choose, and it is also the market that tests traders' patience the most. It uses "time for space" to leave enough room for subsequent operations. For investors, this is a golden window for rebalancing, screening strong targets, and optimizing the position structure, rather than a moment to chase the rise and kill the fall.

Hawkish Surprise (C) Probability: 20%
Trigger conditions: The dot plot suggests less than 2 rate cuts, or multiple officials predict only 1 rate cut/no rate cut. Powell emphasized that "the fight against inflation is not over" and is extremely cautious about interest rate cuts, even mentioning that "the possibility of raising interest rates is not ruled out (extremely unlikely but nuclear-level).
Market reaction: The US dollar and US Treasury yields soared, and risk assets plummeted across the board. BTC will first test the 85000-88000 key support zone. If it falls, it may trigger a leverage stampede and quickly look for weekly support (around 80,000). Altcoins will fall far more than BTC.
Experience: Never underestimate the Fed's ability to "raise interest rates with its mouth". The current market is too optimistic and the positions are crowded. Once the hawkish shock arrives, the most liquid assets (BTC, ETH) will be the first to be sold off to make up for losses elsewhere. This is the riskiest scenario, but it is also an opportunity to wash the market and create a golden pit for next year's bull market.

My core judgment: tonight is most likely to go to scenario B (neutral balance, high shock), but we need to be extremely vigilant against the tail risk of C (hawkish surprise).

2. After tonight: No matter what the scenario, our tracking combat map
The market is not guessed, it is followed and dealt with. Here are four dimensions that you and I need to focus on:

1. Fed policy implementation: instant interpretation of "devil details"
Powell's Dictionary:
Dovish signals: "increased confidence", "significant progress", "balancing risks".
Hawkish signals: "stay vigilant", "not make enough progress", "do not relax too early", "data dependence".
Dot plot gimmick: Not only look at 2024, but also focus on whether the median long-term interest rate in 2025-2026 will move upwards, which means whether "higher and longer" will be repriced.

2. Institutional Fund Flow: Real vote for smart money
Bitcoin spot ETFs: Net inflow/outflow data for each trading morning is a barometer. If there is a continuous large net outflow after the resolution, it indicates that the institution is taking advantage of the good shipment or hedging.
CME Bitcoin Futures:
Open interest: Increase in open interest in rising = trend continuation; Increase in open interest in a decline = trend acceleration.
Funding rate: If the funding rate of perpetual contracts soars after the decision, it indicates that the bulls are overheated, which is a short-term reversal risk signal.

3. On-chain data changes: Gain insight into the pulse of whales and the market
Whale Transfers: Monitor "large transfer to exchange" alerts from on-chain analytics platforms (e.g., Glassnode, CryptoQuant). whale deposit = potential selling pressure; Withdrawing coins from an exchange = long-term hoarding.
Exchange balance: The net change in the total BTC balance on the exchange. Continuous decrease = bullish (chips are locked); Sudden increase = bearish (ready to sell).
Total stablecoin supply (USDT+USDC): This is the over-the-counter "ammunition". If it continues to grow, it means that purchasing power is accumulating, which is bull market fuel.

3. Strategy dynamic update: (Combat ideas)

If you go to Scenario A (dovish):
Operation: Hold a core position and chase the leader (such as ETH, SOL) in batches. However, the position should not exceed 50%, and the stop loss should be moved up to the cost line.
Target: Priority is given to the large market and mainstream Layer 1 (enjoy beta benefits).

If you go to Scenario B (neutral):
Operation: Sell high and buy low, grid trading is dominant. Pending orders on the upper and lower edges of the oscillation range. Focus on researching and laying out second-tier leaders with excellent fundamentals and recent catalysis (such as mainnet launch and ecological outbreak) to ambush the next wave of the market.
Target: Pay attention to sectors with real progress such as AI, RWA, DePIN, and modularization.

If you go to scenario C (hawkish):
Operation: Decessively reduce the position to less than 30% and retain a large amount of USDT/USDC. Don't take the flying knife and wait for the panic order (the panic greed index falls below 20). It is planned to place limit buy orders in batches at the three key support levels of 8000, 7500 and 70000 (if it can be reached).
Target: Only BTC, ETH with blood chips. Altcoins are all on the sidelines.

Summary and Risk Control Iron Law:
I've seen too many people get consumed by emotions in these moments. The real opportunity always belongs to those who have adequate plans, strict discipline, and enough bullets. Tonight, whatever Powell says, take a deep breath.
The market's first reaction is often emotional and wrong. Wait for the K-line structure to stabilize 1-2 hours after the decision, and then make a final decision based on the data verification of the above four dimensions.

Remember: survive to see the next bull market. I will continue to follow this feast of macro and capital with you. Stay alert and ready for battle. #美联储降息预测 #十二月行情展望 #广场发帖领$50 #比特币行情观察 #今日你看涨还是看跌？