It exploded at the opening.

Nasdaq futures fell directly by 1.5%, and Bitcoin became even more violent, falling 6 points in half an hour. The screen was all green, and some people in the group had already begun to shout black swans.

A buddy cut on the spot, and only reacted after cutting - this is not an emergency at all, it is a clear retreat of funds.

Let's talk about the U.S. Treasury Department first. The government shutdown has been in place for almost 40 days, and the TGA account bottomed out, with more than 160 billion short-term bonds urgently issued last week. This money has to be taken over by real money in the market, and hundreds of billions of liquidity have been sucked away. The stock market and currency circle are originally pushed by funds, and of course they can't bear the blood draw.

Let's look at the Fed's statement. In a word, the expectation of a rate cut in December has been directly hit from 70% to less than 45%, saying that the policy direction has not yet been finalized. Short-term funds immediately reduced leverage after listening, and liquidation orders poured out, and the already tight liquidity became tighter, and the decline naturally expanded.

There are also undercurrents in the interbank market. The use of the Fed's emergency liquidity tools has reached its post-pandemic peak, and banks are beginning to worry about borrowing money at night. On the surface, the market is not bad for money, but in fact, all living money is locked by treasury bonds and reverse repos, and it does not flow to the stock market and currency circle at all.

But this wave of decline does not mean that a bear market is coming. When the government shutdown ends and the Fed sends a dovish signal, the withdrawn funds will definitely return. Now cutting meat in a panic is to send chips at the bottom of the valley. What you really need to do is to take cash and keep an eye on those oversold top currencies.

The market is never short of volatility, what is lacking is the calmness to see the logic behind it clearly. The position management that has been repeatedly mentioned before, not blindly chasing the rise and fall, is the most useful at this time. As soon as the signal of capital return appears, the opportunity will naturally come. What the currency circle earns is originally money that understands fluctuations.