#美联储FOMC会议 $BTC $ETH $BNB

Interest rate cuts can't come, how can crypto and risk assets play?

The Fed's May FOMC meeting is approaching, and the previous expectations of interest rate cuts are being slapped in the face by real data. According to CME data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in May is only 2.7%, and the probability of not moving in June is close to 70%. This change directly impacts the pricing logic of risky assets such as cryptocurrencies and growth stocks, and the question facing investors is very real: how to adjust their positions.

Why is the interest rate cut far away?

The Fed is eyeing two core indicators – inflation and employment. At first glance, inflation has fallen from sky-highs, but key data such as core PCE and wage growth are still stuck at a level that the Fed is not satisfied with. Coupled with the resilience of the job market, there is no reason for the Fed to rush to cut interest rates. In other words, "normalization of high interest rates" has become a new consensus in the market.

How much does this affect asset pricing? Interest rates are the anchor of all asset valuations. When interest rates remain high, smart funds will naturally flock to stable income varieties such as bonds and time deposits, while the valuation premium of risk assets such as crypto and growth stocks will be ruthlessly compressed. This is the core reason for the previous crypto surge and plunge - the market has changed from "betting on rapid interest rate cuts" to "admitting to a new era of high interest rates", and asset prices have to be repositioned.

How to match crypto and risk assets

**1. Don't bet on the policy, you have to look at the real value**

The previous set of general rise driven by the expectation of interest rate cuts will basically not come again. What should be done now is to move from speculation to product selection. Looking at crypto assets, choose those projects that have practical application scenarios and can generate cash flow, and don't be fooled by the rhetoric of various altcoins. The concept of speculating on air coins is a dead end in a high-interest rate environment. The same is true for the traditional stock market, where value stocks with high dividends and low valuations are much more resistant to beatings than those with high valuations of technology growth stocks.

**2. Reduce single-point risk and prepare for multiple hands**

Market fluctuations are the norm in the era of high interest rates, and individual assets are prone to ups and downs. It is recommended to control your crypto asset position within what you can afford, and then pair it with some defensive assets - gold is a classic choice, short-term bonds can also provide stable returns, plus some inflation-resistant real assets. Through such a mix-and-match combination, when a certain market is shaky, other assets can help you get around the situation.

In the final analysis, in an environment where interest rate cut expectations fail and high interest rates continue, the competition is not about who has the bigger bet, but who has a more balanced allocation and stronger risk control.