Next Wednesday, December 10, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its last interest rate decision of the year. Bitcoin is currently holding above $92,000, and the market mood is delicate – neither relaxed nor retreated.

This time is not a simple question of whether to cut interest rates or not. It is likely to redefine the direction of the market in the coming months, or even into early 2026.

**Let's start with the conclusion:**

CME FedWatch data shows that more than 87% of traders believe in a 25 basis point rate cut. This is basically a certainty. But the question arises - what signal will the Fed send at the same time as cutting interest rates?

What the market is now worried about is the so-called "hawkish rate cut". It means: it has fallen, but don't expect us to continue to do this in the future. This operation is to prevent everyone from getting too high and thinking that the era of relaxation is back.

**There is also a longer-term factor:**

Powell is expected to step down in May 2026. Kevin Hassitt, the favorite to succeed him, is considered to be more dovish. If this judgment is correct, then there may be a more accommodative monetary environment in the second half of next year. This is certainly good news for risk assets.

What does this mean for the crypto market? **

The expectation of interest rate cuts has helped BTC pull back from its previous lows. But what will happen after the resolution is announced? The key depends on how the Fed speaks:

- If the tone is soft, risk assets may continue to rise
- If the tone is hard, then be careful of the pullback after the "good news"

Now in this position, to be honest, it's a bit embarrassing. Neither up nor down. Everyone was waiting for the boot to land.